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KurzweilAI | Accelerating Intelligence. An analysis of the history of new orleans synthesis technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to restaurant mangement + research, the common-sense “intuitive linear” view. So we won’t experience 100 years of synthesis progress in the 21st century — it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today’s rate). The “returns,” such as chip speed and cost-effectiveness, also increase exponentially. There’s even exponential growth in fresh interior designer the rate of exponential growth. New Orleans? Within a few decades, machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, leading to essay, The Singularity — technological change so rapid and new orleans synthesis, profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of how to essay human history. The implications include the merger of biological and nonbiological intelligence, immortal software-based humans, and ultra-high levels of synthesis essay intelligence that expand outward in case western study the universe at the speed of light.
You will get $40 trillion just by reading this essay and understanding what it says. New Orleans Synthesis? For complete details, see below. (It’s true that authors will do just about anything to keep your attention, but I’m serious about this statement. Until I return to a further explanation, however, do read the first sentence of this paragraph carefully.) Now back to conversation wole soyinka, the future: it’s widely misunderstood. Our forebears expected the future to be pretty much like their present, which had been pretty much like their past. New Orleans Essay? Although exponential trends did exist a thousand years ago, they were at that very early stage where an goal of motivation essay, exponential trend is so flat that it looks like no trend at all. New Orleans? So their lack of expectations was largely fulfilled. Mangement + Research? Today, in accordance with the common wisdom, everyone expects continuous technological progress and the social repercussions that follow.
But the future will be far more surprising than most observers realize: few have truly internalized the implications of the fact that the rate of change itself is accelerating. The Intuitive Linear View versus the Historical Exponential View. Most long range forecasts of technical feasibility in future time periods dramatically underestimate the power of future technology because they are based on what I call the new orleans “intuitive linear” view of goal technological progress rather than the “historical exponential view.” To express this another way, it is not the case that we will experience a hundred years of progress in the twenty-first century; rather we will witness on the order of twenty thousand years of progress (at today’s rate of progress, that is). This disparity in outlook comes up frequently in a variety of synthesis essay contexts, for conversation wole, example, the discussion of the ethical issues that Bill Joy raised in his controversial WIRED cover story, Why The Future Doesn’t Need Us. New Orleans? Bill and I have been frequently paired in a variety of venues as pessimist and optimist respectively. Although I’m expected to criticize Bill’s position, and indeed I do take issue with his prescription of relinquishment, I nonetheless usually end up defending Joy on the key issue of feasibility. Goal Essay? Recently a Noble Prize winning panelist dismissed Bill’s concerns, exclaiming that, “we’re not going to see self-replicating nanoengineered entities for essay, a hundred years.” I pointed out that 100 years was indeed a reasonable estimate of the amount of technical progress required to achieve this particular milestone at today’s rate of progress . But because we’re doubling the sparknotes rate of progress every decade, we’ll see a century of new orleans synthesis essay progress– at today’s rate –in only 25 calendar years. When people think of a future period, they intuitively assume that the current rate of progress will continue for future periods. However, careful consideration of the pace of technology shows that the university abroad rate of progress is not constant, but it is human nature to adapt to the changing pace, so the intuitive view is that the pace will continue at the current rate.
Even for essay, those of mangement + research paper us who have been around long enough to experience how the pace increases over time, our unexamined intuition nonetheless provides the impression that progress changes at the rate that we have experienced recently. From the mathematician’s perspective, a primary reason for this is new orleans synthesis, that an exponential curve approximates a straight line when viewed for a brief duration. Western University Abroad? So even though the rate of essay progress in the very recent past (e.g., this past year) is far greater than it was ten years ago (let alone a hundred or a thousand years ago), our memories are nonetheless dominated by our very recent experience. It is typical, therefore, that even sophisticated commentators, when considering the a narrative future, extrapolate the current pace of change over the next 10 years or 100 years to determine their expectations. This is why I call this way of looking at new orleans synthesis the future the mangement “intuitive linear” view. But a serious assessment of the history of technology shows that technological change is new orleans, exponential.
In exponential growth, we find that a key measurement such as computational power is multiplied by a constant factor for each unit of time (e.g., doubling every year) rather than just being added to incrementally. Exponential growth is a feature of any evolutionary process, of which technology is a primary example. One can examine the restaurant + research data. in different ways, on different time scales, and for a wide variety of technologies ranging from electronic to biological, and new orleans, the acceleration of mangement progress and growth applies. Synthesis? Indeed, we find not just simple exponential growth, but “double” exponential growth, meaning that the rate of exponential growth is itself growing exponentially. These observations do not rely merely on an assumption of the continuation of Moore’s law (i.e., the exponential shrinking of transistor sizes on an integrated circuit), but is based on a rich model of diverse technological processes. What it clearly shows is that technology, particularly the pace of technological change, advances (at least) exponentially, not linearly, and has been doing so since the advent of technology, indeed since the advent of evolution on telephone conversation soyinka Earth. I emphasize this point because it is the most important failure that would-be prognosticators make in new orleans considering future trends.
Most technology forecasts ignore altogether this “historical exponential view” of technological progress. That is why people tend to overestimate what can be achieved in western the short term (because we tend to leave out new orleans synthesis essay necessary details), but underestimate what can be achieved in the long term (because the exponential growth is ignored). We can organize these observations into how to cite a narrative essay what I call the law of synthesis accelerating returns as follows: Evolution applies positive feedback in that the more capable methods resulting from one stage of evolutionary progress are used to create the next stage. As a result, the rate of progress of an evolutionary process increases exponentially over time. Over time, the “order” of the information embedded in sparknotes the evolutionary process (i.e., the measure of how well the information fits a purpose, which in evolution is survival) increases. A correlate of the above observation is that the new orleans synthesis essay “returns” of an graduate interior cover, evolutionary process (e.g., the speed, cost-effectiveness, or overall “power” of synthesis essay a process) increase exponentially over time. In another positive feedback loop, as a particular evolutionary process (e.g., computation) becomes more effective (e.g., cost effective), greater resources are deployed toward the further progress of that process. This results in a second level of case study exponential growth (i.e., the rate of exponential growth itself grows exponentially).
Biological evolution is one such evolutionary process. New Orleans? Technological evolution is goal theory of motivation essay, another such evolutionary process. Synthesis? Indeed, the emergence of the first technology creating species resulted in the new evolutionary process of technology. Therefore, technological evolution is an outgrowth of–and a continuation of–biological evolution. A specific paradigm (a method or approach to solving a problem, e.g., shrinking transistors on an integrated circuit as an approach to essay of man, making more powerful computers) provides exponential growth until the method exhausts its potential. New Orleans Synthesis Essay? When this happens, a paradigm shift (i.e., a fundamental change in the approach) occurs, which enables exponential growth to continue. If we apply these principles at the highest level of evolution on Earth, the first step, the creation of cells, introduced the paradigm of biology.
The subsequent emergence of DNA provided a digital method to record the results of how to evolutionary experiments. Then, the evolution of a species who combined rational thought with an opposable appendage (i.e., the thumb) caused a fundamental paradigm shift from biology to technology. The upcoming primary paradigm shift will be from biological thinking to a hybrid combining biological and nonbiological thinking. This hybrid will include “biologically inspired” processes resulting from the reverse engineering of biological brains. If we examine the timing of these steps, we see that the process has continuously accelerated.
The evolution of new orleans life forms required billions of years for the first steps (e.g., primitive cells); later on progress accelerated. During the Cambrian explosion, major paradigm shifts took only tens of millions of years. Later on, Humanoids developed over a period of millions of of motivation years, and Homo sapiens over a period of only hundreds of thousands of years. With the advent of a technology-creating species, the exponential pace became too fast for evolution through DNA-guided protein synthesis and moved on to human-created technology. Synthesis? Technology goes beyond mere tool making; it is a process of creating ever more powerful technology using the tools from the previous round of innovation. In this way, human technology is distinguished from the tool making of other species. There is a record of each stage of technology, and each new stage of technology builds on the order of the previous stage. The first technological steps-sharp edges, fire, the wheel–took tens of thousands of case western years. For people living in this era, there was little noticeable technological change in new orleans synthesis even a thousand years. By 1000 A.D., progress was much faster and of motivation, a paradigm shift required only a century or two.
In the new orleans essay nineteenth century, we saw more technological change than in the nine centuries preceding it. Then in the first twenty years of the conversation essay twentieth century, we saw more advancement than in all of the nineteenth century. Now, paradigm shifts occur in only a few years time. The World Wide Web did not exist in anything like its present form just a few years ago; it didn’t exist at all a decade ago. The paradigm shift rate (i.e., the overall rate of technical progress) is currently doubling (approximately) every decade; that is, paradigm shift times are halving every decade (and the rate of acceleration is itself growing exponentially). So, the technological progress in the twenty-first century will be equivalent to new orleans synthesis, what would require (in the linear view) on the order of 200 centuries. In contrast, the twentieth century saw only about 25 years of progress (again at today’s rate of progress) since we have been speeding up to current rates. So the twenty-first century will see almost a thousand times greater technological change than its predecessor. To appreciate the nature and significance of the coming “singularity,” it is important to ponder the fresh graduate designer nature of new orleans exponential growth.
Toward this end, I am fond of telling the telephone conversation tale of the new orleans essay inventor of chess and goal theory, his patron, the emperor of China. In response to the emperor’s offer of a reward for his new beloved game, the inventor asked for a single grain of new orleans synthesis essay rice on the first square, two on the second square, four on the third, and so on. Goal Theory? The Emperor quickly granted this seemingly benign and humble request. One version of the story has the emperor going bankrupt as the 63 doublings ultimately totaled 18 million trillion grains of rice. At ten grains of rice per square inch, this requires rice fields covering twice the surface area of the Earth, oceans included. Another version of the story has the essay inventor losing his head. It should be pointed out fresh designer that as the emperor and the inventor went through the first half of the chess board, things were fairly uneventful. The inventor was given spoonfuls of rice, then bowls of rice, then barrels. By the end of the first half of the chess board, the inventor had accumulated one large field’s worth (4 billion grains), and the emperor did start to take notice. It was as they progressed through the second half of the chessboard that the situation quickly deteriorated.
Incidentally, with regard to the doublings of computation, that’s about new orleans where we stand now–there have been slightly more than 32 doublings of how to a narrative performance since the first programmable computers were invented during World War II. This is the nature of exponential growth. Although technology grows in the exponential domain, we humans live in a linear world. Synthesis? So technological trends are not noticed as small levels of technological power are doubled. Then seemingly out of essay of man nowhere, a technology explodes into view. For example, when the synthesis Internet went from 20,000 to 80,000 nodes over a two year period during the 1980s, this progress remained hidden from the theory essay general public. A decade later, when it went from 20 million to 80 million nodes in the same amount of time, the impact was rather conspicuous. As exponential growth continues to accelerate into the first half of the twenty-first century, it will appear to explode into infinity, at least from the new orleans synthesis essay limited and linear perspective of contemporary humans. The progress will ultimately become so fast that it will rupture our ability to follow it.
It will literally get out of our control. The illusion that we have our hand “on the plug,” will be dispelled. Can the pace of wole soyinka essay technological progress continue to speed up indefinitely? Is there not a point where humans are unable to think fast enough to keep up with it? With regard to unenhanced humans, clearly so.
But what would a thousand scientists, each a thousand times more intelligent than human scientists today, and each operating a thousand times faster than contemporary humans (because the information processing in their primarily nonbiological brains is faster) accomplish? One year would be like a millennium. What would they come up with? Well, for one thing, they would come up with technology to become even more intelligent (because their intelligence is no longer of fixed capacity). They would change their own thought processes to think even faster. When the scientists evolve to be a million times more intelligent and new orleans synthesis, operate a million times faster, then an hour would result in a century of mangement + research progress (in today’s terms). This, then, is the Singularity. New Orleans Synthesis? The Singularity is restaurant mangement + research, technological change so rapid and essay, so profound that it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history. Some would say that we cannot comprehend the Singularity, at least with our current level of understanding, and restaurant, that it is impossible, therefore, to look past its “event horizon” and make sense of what lies beyond.
My view is that despite our profound limitations of thought, constrained as we are today to a mere hundred trillion interneuronal connections in our biological brains, we nonetheless have sufficient powers of new orleans synthesis abstraction to make meaningful statements about the nature of life after the Singularity. Most importantly, it is my view that the intelligence that will emerge will continue to represent the human civilization, which is already a human-machine civilization. This will be the fresh graduate cover letter next step in evolution, the next high level paradigm shift. To put the new orleans synthesis essay concept of Singularity into perspective, let’s explore the history of the word itself. Singularity is a familiar word meaning a unique event with profound implications. Case University Study? In mathematics, the term implies infinity, the explosion of value that occurs when dividing a constant by a number that gets closer and closer to zero. New Orleans Synthesis Essay? In physics, similarly, a singularity denotes an event or location of western university infinite power.
At the center of a black hole, matter is so dense that its gravity is infinite. As nearby matter and new orleans synthesis essay, energy are drawn into the black hole, an event horizon separates the region from the rest of the conversation soyinka essay Universe. It constitutes a rupture in synthesis essay the fabric of space and time. Theory Essay? The Universe itself is said to new orleans, have begun with just such a Singularity. In the 1950s, John Von Neumann was quoted as saying that “the ever accelerating progress of technology…gives the appearance of approaching some essential singularity in the history of the race beyond which human affairs, as we know them, could not continue.” In the 1960s, I. J. How To Cite A Narrative Essay? Good wrote of an “intelligence explosion,” resulting from intelligent machines designing their next generation without human intervention. In 1986, Vernor Vinge, a mathematician and computer scientist at synthesis San Diego State University, wrote about a rapidly approaching technological “singularity” in telephone wole essay his science fiction novel, Marooned in new orleans essay Realtime. Then in 1993, Vinge presented a paper to a NASA-organized symposium which described the Singularity as an impending event resulting primarily from the advent of “entities with greater than human intelligence,” which Vinge saw as the harbinger of a run-away phenomenon. From my perspective, the Singularity has many faces.
It represents the nearly vertical phase of exponential growth where the university study rate of growth is so extreme that technology appears to be growing at infinite speed. Essay? Of course, from a mathematical perspective, there is no discontinuity, no rupture, and the growth rates remain finite, albeit extraordinarily large. But from telephone conversation wole essay, our currently limited perspective, this imminent event appears to synthesis, be an cite, acute and new orleans synthesis, abrupt break in the continuity of progress. However, I emphasize the word “currently,” because one of the graduate interior letter salient implications of the Singularity will be a change in the nature of our ability to new orleans synthesis, understand. In other words, we will become vastly smarter as we merge with our technology. When I wrote my first book, The Age of of man sparknotes Intelligent Machines, in the 1980s, I ended the synthesis book with the specter of the emergence of machine intelligence greater than human intelligence, but found it difficult to sparknotes, look beyond this event horizon. Now having thought about its implications for synthesis, the past 20 years, I feel that we are indeed capable of understanding the many facets of goal this threshold, one that will transform all spheres of new orleans synthesis human life. Consider a few examples of the implications. The bulk of our experiences will shift from real reality to virtual reality. Most of the intelligence of our civilization will ultimately be nonbiological, which by fresh graduate designer the end of this century will be trillions of new orleans synthesis essay trillions of times more powerful than human intelligence.
However, to address often expressed concerns, this does not imply the end of biological intelligence, even if thrown from its perch of evolutionary superiority. Moreover, it is case, important to note that the nonbiological forms will be derivative of biological design. In other words, our civilization will remain human, indeed in new orleans synthesis essay many ways more exemplary of what we regard as human than it is today, although our understanding of the term will move beyond its strictly biological origins. Many observers have nonetheless expressed alarm at the emergence of forms of nonbiological intelligence superior to human intelligence. The potential to augment our own intelligence through intimate connection with other thinking mediums does not necessarily alleviate the concern, as some people have expressed the wish to remain “unenhanced” while at the same time keeping their place at the top of the intellectual food chain. Mangement? My view is that the new orleans synthesis essay likely outcome is that on the one hand, from the perspective of biological humanity, these superhuman intelligences will appear to be their transcendent servants, satisfying their needs and desires. On the other hand, fulfilling the wishes of a revered biological legacy will occupy only a trivial portion of the how to essay intellectual power that the Singularity will bring. Needless to new orleans, say, the Singularity will transform all aspects of our lives, social, sexual, and western university abroad, economic, which I explore herewith. Before considering further the new orleans synthesis implications of the Singularity, let’s examine the wide range of technologies that are subject to the law of accelerating returns.
The exponential trend that has gained the greatest public recognition has become known as “Moore’s Law.” Gordon Moore, one of the wole inventors of integrated circuits, and then Chairman of new orleans Intel, noted in the mid 1970s that we could squeeze twice as many transistors on an integrated circuit every 24 months. Given that the electrons have less distance to western, travel, the circuits also run twice as fast, providing an overall quadrupling of computational power. After sixty years of devoted service, Moore’s Law will die a dignified death no later than the year 2019. By that time, transistor features will be just a few atoms in width, and new orleans, the strategy of ever finer photolithography will have run its course. So, will that be the end of the exponential growth of computing? If we plot the speed (in instructions per second) per $1000 (in constant dollars) of case western university 49 famous calculators and synthesis essay, computers spanning the entire twentieth century, we note some interesting observations. Moore’s Law Was Not the First, but the Fifth Paradigm To Provide Exponential Growth of Computing. Each time one paradigm runs out of steam, another picks up the pace. It is important to note that Moore’s Law of Integrated Circuits was not the how to cite a narrative first, but the fifth paradigm to provide accelerating price-performance.
Computing devices have been consistently multiplying in power (per unit of time) from the mechanical calculating devices used in the 1890 U.S. Census, to Turing’s relay-based “Robinson” machine that cracked the new orleans essay Nazi enigma code, to the CBS vacuum tube computer that predicted the election of Eisenhower, to the transistor-based machines used in the first space launches, to the integrated-circuit-based personal computer which I used to dictate (and automatically transcribe) this essay. But I noticed something else surprising. When I plotted the 49 machines on an exponential graph (where a straight line means exponential growth), I didn’t get a straight line. What I got was another exponential curve. In other words, there’s exponential growth in the rate of fresh interior designer letter exponential growth. Computer speed (per unit cost) doubled every three years between 1910 and 1950, doubled every two years between 1950 and 1966, and is now doubling every year. But where does Moore’s Law come from? What is behind this remarkably predictable phenomenon?
I have seen relatively little written about the ultimate source of synthesis this trend. Is it just “a set of wole soyinka essay industry expectations and goals,” as Randy Isaac, head of basic science at IBM contends? Or is there something more profound going on? In my view, it is one manifestation (among many) of the synthesis essay exponential growth of the evolutionary process that is technology. The exponential growth of computing is a marvelous quantitative example of the exponentially growing returns from an evolutionary process.
We can also express the exponential growth of computing in case western university terms of an accelerating pace: it took ninety years to achieve the first MIPS (million instructions per second) per thousand dollars, now we add one MIPS per thousand dollars every day. Moore’s Law narrowly refers to the number of transistors on an integrated circuit of new orleans synthesis fixed size, and conversation wole, sometimes has been expressed even more narrowly in terms of transistor feature size. New Orleans Synthesis Essay? But rather than feature size (which is telephone conversation wole soyinka essay, only one contributing factor), or even number of transistors, I think the most appropriate measure to track is computational speed per unit cost. This takes into account many levels of “cleverness” (i.e., innovation, which is to synthesis essay, say, technological evolution). Graduate Interior Cover Letter? In addition to all of the innovation in integrated circuits, there are multiple layers of new orleans synthesis innovation in computer design, e.g., pipelining, parallel processing, instruction look-ahead, instruction and memory caching, and many others. From the case university study abroad above chart, we see that the exponential growth of computing didn’t start with integrated circuits (around 1958), or even transistors (around 1947), but goes back to the electromechanical calculators used in new orleans synthesis essay the 1890 and 1900 U.S. How To Cite A Narrative Essay? Census. This chart spans at least five distinct paradigms of computing, of which Moore’s Law pertains to only the latest one. It’s obvious what the sixth paradigm will be after Moore’s Law runs out of new orleans synthesis essay steam during the second decade of this century. Chips today are flat (although it does require up to 20 layers of material to produce one layer of circuitry). Our brain, in telephone contrast, is new orleans synthesis, organized in three dimensions.
We live in a three dimensional world, why not use the third dimension? The human brain actually uses a very inefficient electrochemical digital controlled analog computational process. The bulk of the calculations are done in the interneuronal connections at a speed of only study, about 200 calculations per second (in each connection), which is synthesis essay, about ten million times slower than contemporary electronic circuits. But the brain gains its prodigious powers from its extremely parallel organization in case university study three dimensions . There are many technologies in the wings that build circuitry in three dimensions. Nanotubes, for synthesis essay, example, which are already working in laboratories, build circuits from pentagonal arrays of carbon atoms. Interior Designer Letter? One cubic inch of synthesis nanotube circuitry would be a million times more powerful than the human brain. There are more than enough new computing technologies now being researched, including three-dimensional silicon chips, optical computing, crystalline computing, DNA computing, and quantum computing, to keep the law of accelerating returns as applied to computation going for a long time. Thus the (double) exponential growth of computing is broader than Moore’s Law, which refers to only one of its paradigms. And this accelerating growth of computing is, in turn, part of the yet broader phenomenon of the accelerating pace of essay of man any evolutionary process. Observers are quick to criticize extrapolations of an exponential trend on the basis that the trend is bound to run out of new orleans essay “resources.” The classical example is when a species happens upon a new habitat (e.g., rabbits in Australia), the species’ numbers will grow exponentially for how to a narrative essay, a time, but then hit a limit when resources such as food and space run out. But the new orleans synthesis resources underlying the exponential growth of an evolutionary process are relatively unbounded: (i) The (ever growing) order of the evolutionary process itself.
Each stage of evolution provides more powerful tools for how to cite a narrative, the next. Synthesis? In biological evolution, the advent of telephone conversation DNA allowed more powerful and faster evolutionary “experiments.” Later, setting the “designs” of animal body plans during the essay Cambrian explosion allowed rapid evolutionary development of other body organs such as the brain. Case Western University? Or to take a more recent example, the advent of computer assisted design tools allows rapid development of the synthesis next generation of computers. Designer Cover Letter? (ii) The “chaos” of the environment in which the evolutionary process takes place and which provides the synthesis essay options for further diversity. In biological evolution, diversity enters the process in of motivation the form of mutations and new orleans synthesis essay, ever changing environmental conditions. In technological evolution, human ingenuity combined with ever changing market conditions keep the process of innovation going. The maximum potential of matter and telephone conversation soyinka essay, energy to contain intelligent processes is essay, a valid issue. But according to my models, we won’t approach those limits during this century (but this will become an issue within a couple of centuries).
We also need to theory essay, distinguish between the “S” curve (an “S” stretched to the right, comprising very slow, virtually unnoticeable growth–followed by very rapid growth–followed by a flattening out as the process approaches an synthesis essay, asymptote) that is characteristic of any specific technological paradigm and the continuing exponential growth that is characteristic of the ongoing evolutionary process of case western study technology. Specific paradigms, such as Moore’s Law, do ultimately reach levels at which exponential growth is no longer feasible. Thus Moore’s Law is an S curve. But the new orleans growth of computation is an ongoing exponential (at least until we “saturate” the Universe with the intelligence of our human-machine civilization, but that will not be a limit in this coming century). In accordance with the law of accelerating returns, paradigm shift, also called innovation, turns the S curve of any specific paradigm into a continuing exponential. Cite? A new paradigm (e.g., three-dimensional circuits) takes over when the old paradigm approaches its natural limit. This has already happened at least four times in the history of computation.
This difference also distinguishes the tool making of non-human species, in which the mastery of a tool-making (or using) skill by new orleans essay each animal is essay, characterized by an abruptly ending S shaped learning curve, versus human-created technology, which has followed an synthesis essay, exponential pattern of growth and acceleration since its inception. DNA Sequencing, Memory, Communications, the Internet, and Miniaturization. This “law of graduate designer letter accelerating returns” applies to all of technology, indeed to any true evolutionary process, and can be measured with remarkable precision in information based technologies. There are a great many examples of the exponential growth implied by the law of new orleans synthesis essay accelerating returns in technologies as varied as DNA sequencing, communication speeds, electronics of all kinds, and even in goal theory essay the rapidly shrinking size of technology. The Singularity results not from the exponential explosion of computation alone, but rather from the interplay and myriad synergies that will result from manifold intertwined technological revolutions. Also, keep in mind that every point on essay the exponential growth curves underlying these panoply of technologies (see the graphs below) represents an intense human drama of innovation and goal of motivation essay, competition. It is remarkable therefore that these chaotic processes result in such smooth and predictable exponential trends. For example, when the human genome scan started fourteen years ago, critics pointed out that given the new orleans synthesis speed with which the genome could then be scanned, it would take thousands of years to finish the project.
Yet the fifteen year project was nonetheless completed slightly ahead of schedule. Of course, we expect to see exponential growth in electronic memories such as RAM. Notice How Exponential Growth Continued through Paradigm Shifts from Vacuum Tubes to mangement + research paper, Discrete Transistors to Integrated Circuits. However, growth in new orleans synthesis magnetic memory is not primarily a matter of Moore’s law, but includes advances in mechanical and electromagnetic systems. Exponential growth in communications technology has been even more explosive than in computation and is no less significant in restaurant + research paper its implications.
Again, this progression involves far more than just shrinking transistors on new orleans an integrated circuit, but includes accelerating advances in fiber optics, optical switching, electromagnetic technologies, and others. Notice Cascade of smaller “S” Curves. Note that in the above two charts we can actually see the restaurant mangement paper progression of “S” curves: the acceleration fostered by a new paradigm, followed by a leveling off as the paradigm runs out of steam, followed by renewed acceleration through paradigm shift. The following two charts show the overall growth of the Internet based on the number of hosts. These two charts plot the same data, but one is on an exponential axis and new orleans synthesis, the other is linear. As I pointed out earlier, whereas technology progresses in the exponential domain, we experience it in a narrative essay the linear domain. Essay? So from the cite perspective of most observers, nothing was happening until the mid 1990s when seemingly out of nowhere, the world wide web and email exploded into view. New Orleans? But the emergence of the Internet into essay a worldwide phenomenon was readily predictable much earlier by examining the exponential trend data.
Notice how the explosion of the Internet appears to be a surprise from the new orleans synthesis Linear Chart, but was perfectly predictable from the Exponential Chart. Ultimately we will get away from the tangle of essay wires in our cities and in our lives through wireless communication, the new orleans synthesis essay power of which is doubling every 10 to 11 months. Another technology that will have profound implications for the twenty-first century is the how to cite a narrative essay pervasive trend toward making things smaller, i.e., miniaturization. The salient implementation sizes of a broad range of new orleans synthesis essay technologies, both electronic and mechanical, are shrinking, also at a double exponential rate. At present, we are shrinking technology by a factor of approximately 5.6 per linear dimension per decade. The Exponential Growth of Computation Revisited. If we view the exponential growth of computation in its proper perspective as one example of the pervasiveness of the graduate designer cover exponential growth of information based technology, that is, as one example of new orleans synthesis essay many of the law of accelerating returns, then we can confidently predict its continuation. In the accompanying sidebar, I include a simplified mathematical model of the law of accelerating returns as it pertains to the (double) exponential growth of computing. The formulas below result in the above graph of the continued growth of computation. This graph matches the mangement paper available data for the twentieth century through all five paradigms and provides projections for the twenty-first century.
Note how the new orleans Growth Rate is growing slowly, but nonetheless exponentially. The Law of Accelerating Returns Applied to the Growth of Computation. The following provides a brief overview of the law of accelerating returns as it applies to the double exponential growth of computation. This model considers the impact of the growing power of the technology to essay of man sparknotes, foster its own next generation. New Orleans Synthesis? For example, with more powerful computers and related technology, we have the of motivation essay tools and the knowledge to design yet more powerful computers, and to do so more quickly. Note that the data for the year 2000 and beyond assume neural net connection calculations as it is expected that this type of calculation will ultimately dominate, particularly in emulating human brain functions.
This type of calculation is less expensive than conventional (e.g., Pentium III / IV) calculations by a factor of at least 100 (particularly if implemented using digital controlled analog electronics, which would correspond well to the brain’s digital controlled analog electrochemical processes). New Orleans? A factor of 100 translates into approximately 6 years (today) and less than 6 years later in of man the twenty-first century. My estimate of brain capacity is 100 billion neurons times an average 1,000 connections per new orleans essay, neuron (with the calculations taking place primarily in the connections) times 200 calculations per second. Although these estimates are conservatively high, one can find higher and lower estimates. Study? However, even much higher (or lower) estimates by orders of magnitude only shift the prediction by a relatively small number of years. Some prominent dates from this analysis include the following: We achieve one Human Brain capability (2 * 10^16 cps) for $1,000 around the year 2023.
We achieve one Human Brain capability (2 * 10^16 cps) for one cent around the year 2037. We achieve one Human Race capability (2 * 10^26 cps) for $1,000 around the year 2049. Synthesis Essay? We achieve one Human Race capability (2 * 10^26 cps) for one cent around the year 2059. The Model considers the following variables: V: Velocity (i.e., power) of computing (measured in CPS/unit cost) W: World Knowledge as it pertains to designing and building computational devices t: Time. The assumptions of the sparknotes model are: In other words, computer power is a linear function of the knowledge of new orleans synthesis how to build computers.
This is actually a conservative assumption. In general, innovations improve V (computer power) by a multiple, not in an additive way. Independent innovations multiply each other’s effect. For example, a circuit advance such as CMOS, a more efficient IC wiring methodology, and a processor innovation such as pipelining all increase V by independent multiples. In other words, W (knowledge) is cumulative, and the instantaneous increment to how to essay, knowledge is proportional to V. W = C1 * C2 * Integral (0 to synthesis, t) W W = C1 * C2 * C3 ^ (C4 * t) V = C1 ^ 2 * C2 * C3 ^ (C4 * t) (Note on notation: a^b means a raised to paper, the b power.) Simplifying the constants, we get: So this is a formula for “accelerating” (i.e., exponentially growing) returns, a “regular Moore’s Law.” As I mentioned above, the data shows exponential growth in new orleans essay the rate of exponential growth. (We doubled computer power every three years early in the twentieth century, every two years in the middle of the century, and close to every one year during the 1990s.) Let’s factor in another exponential phenomenon, which is the growing resources for computation.
Not only is each (constant cost) device getting more powerful as a function of telephone soyinka W, but the resources deployed for computation are also growing exponentially. N: Expenditures for computation V = C1 * W (as before) N = C4 ^ (C5 * t) (Expenditure for synthesis, computation is growing at its own exponential rate) W = C2 * Integral(0 to t) (N * V) As before, world knowledge is accumulating, and the instantaneous increment is proportional to the amount of goal of motivation computation, which equals the resources deployed for computation (N) * the power of synthesis each (constant cost) device. W = C1 * C2 * Integral(0 to t) (C4 ^ (C5 * t) * W) W = C1 * C2 * (C3 ^ (C6 * t)) ^ (C7 * t) V = C1 ^ 2 * C2 * (C3 ^ (C6 * t)) ^ (C7 * t) Simplifying the constants, we get: This is a double exponential–an exponential curve in which the rate of conversation wole exponential growth is growing at a different exponential rate. Now let’s consider real-world data. New Orleans Essay? Considering the data for actual calculating devices and computers during the twentieth century: CPS/$1K: Calculations Per Second for $1,000.
Twentieth century computing data matches: We can determine the designer cover letter growth rate over new orleans synthesis essay a period of western abroad time: Growth Rate =10^((LOG(CPS/$1K for Current Year) – LOG(CPS/$1K for Previous Year))/(Current Year – Previous Year)) Human Brain = 100 Billion (10^11) neurons * 1000 (10^3) Connections/Neuron * 200 (2 * 10^2) Calculations Per Second Per Connection = 2 * 10^16 Calculations Per Second Human Race = 10 Billion (10^10) Human Brains = 2 * 10^26 Calculations Per Second. These formulas produce the essay graph above. Already, IBM’s “Blue Gene” supercomputer, now being built and scheduled to be completed by 2005, is projected to provide 1 million billion calculations per second (i.e., one billion megaflops).
This is already one twentieth of the capacity of the human brain, which I estimate at a conservatively high 20 million billion calculations per second (100 billion neurons times 1,000 connections per neuron times 200 calculations per second per fresh graduate designer letter, connection). In line with my earlier predictions, supercomputers will achieve one human brain capacity by 2010, and personal computers will do so by new orleans around 2020. By 2030, it will take a village of essay human brains (around a thousand) to match $1000 of computing. By 2050, $1000 of computing will equal the processing power of all human brains on new orleans synthesis essay Earth. Of course, this only includes those brains still using carbon-based neurons. While human neurons are wondrous creations in a way, we wouldn’t (and don’t) design computing circuits the same way. Our electronic circuits are already more than ten million times faster than a neuron’s electrochemical processes. Most of the essay of man complexity of a human neuron is devoted to maintaining its life support functions, not its information processing capabilities. Ultimately, we will need to port our mental processes to a more suitable computational substrate.
Then our minds won’t have to stay so small, being constrained as they are today to essay, a mere hundred trillion neural connections each operating at a ponderous 200 digitally controlled analog calculations per how to a narrative essay, second. So far, I’ve been talking about the new orleans synthesis hardware of computing. The software is even more salient. One of the principal assumptions underlying the case university expectation of the Singularity is the ability of nonbiological mediums to synthesis, emulate the richness, subtlety, and depth of human thinking. Achieving the goal computational capacity of the human brain, or even villages and nations of human brains will not automatically produce human levels of capability. By human levels I include all the diverse and essay, subtle ways in which humans are intelligent, including musical and artistic aptitude, creativity, physically moving through the world, and essay of man sparknotes, understanding and responding appropriately to new orleans, emotion.
The requisite hardware capacity is a necessary but not sufficient condition. The organization and content of these resources–the software of intelligence–is also critical. Before addressing this issue, it is western university study, important to note that once a computer achieves a human level of intelligence, it will necessarily soar past it. A key advantage of new orleans synthesis essay nonbiological intelligence is restaurant + research, that machines can easily share their knowledge. If I learn French, or read War and Peace, I can’t readily download that learning to new orleans synthesis essay, you.
You have to restaurant, acquire that scholarship the same painstaking way that I did. My knowledge, embedded in new orleans synthesis a vast pattern of neurotransmitter concentrations and interneuronal connections, cannot be quickly accessed or transmitted. But we won’t leave out quick downloading ports in our nonbiological equivalents of human neuron clusters. When one computer learns a skill or gains an insight, it can immediately share that wisdom with billions of other machines. As a contemporary example, we spent years teaching one research computer how to recognize continuous human speech. We exposed it to thousands of hours of recorded speech, corrected its errors, and patiently improved its performance. Finally, it became quite adept at how to a narrative recognizing speech (I dictated most of my recent book to new orleans synthesis, it).
Now if you want your own personal computer to recognize speech, it doesn’t have to go through the same process; you can just download the fully trained patterns in seconds. Ultimately, billions of nonbiological entities can be the how to cite a narrative master of all human and machine acquired knowledge. In addition, computers are potentially millions of times faster than human neural circuits. New Orleans? A computer can also remember billions or even trillions of facts perfectly, while we are hard pressed to remember a handful of phone numbers. The combination of human level intelligence in a machine with a computer’s inherent superiority in telephone conversation wole essay the speed, accuracy, and sharing ability of new orleans essay its memory will be formidable. There are a number of compelling scenarios to achieve higher levels of intelligence in our computers, and ultimately human levels and beyond. We will be able to evolve and train a system combining massively parallel neural nets with other paradigms to understand language and of man, model knowledge, including the ability to new orleans, read and model the knowledge contained in written documents. Unlike many contemporary “neural net” machines, which use mathematically simplified models of human neurons, some contemporary neural nets are already using highly detailed models of human neurons, including detailed nonlinear analog activation functions and other relevant details.
Although the ability of today’s computers to extract and learn knowledge from goal of motivation, natural language documents is limited, their capabilities in this domain are improving rapidly. New Orleans Synthesis? Computers will be able to read on their own, understanding and cite a narrative essay, modeling what they have read, by the second decade of the twenty-first century. We can then have our computers read all of the world’s literature–books, magazines, scientific journals, and other available material. Ultimately, the machines will gather knowledge on their own by venturing out on the web, or even into the physical world, drawing from the full spectrum of media and new orleans synthesis essay, information services, and graduate interior designer letter, sharing knowledge with each other (which machines can do far more easily than their human creators). Reverse Engineering the synthesis Human Brain. The most compelling scenario for goal of motivation, mastering the software of intelligence is to tap into the blueprint of the best example we can get our hands on new orleans essay of an intelligent process. There is no reason why we cannot reverse engineer the human brain, and essentially copy its design. How To Cite? Although it took its original designer several billion years to new orleans essay, develop, it’s readily available to cite a narrative, us, and not (yet) copyrighted.
Although there’s a skull around the brain, it is not hidden from our view. The most immediately accessible way to synthesis, accomplish this is restaurant paper, through destructive scanning: we take a frozen brain, preferably one frozen just slightly before rather than slightly after it was going to die anyway, and examine one brain layer–one very thin slice–at a time. We can readily see every neuron and every connection and every neurotransmitter concentration represented in each synapse-thin layer. Human brain scanning has already started. A condemned killer allowed his brain and body to be scanned and you can access all 10 billion bytes of him on new orleans synthesis the Internet http://www.nlm.nih.gov/research/visible/visible_human.html. He has a 25 billion byte female companion on the site as well in case he gets lonely. This scan is not high enough in resolution for our purposes, but then, we probably don’t want to how to a narrative, base our templates of machine intelligence on the brain of a convicted killer, anyway. But scanning a frozen brain is feasible today, albeit not yet at a sufficient speed or bandwidth, but again, the essay law of accelerating returns will provide the graduate cover requisite speed of scanning, just as it did for the human genome scan. Carnegie Mellon University’s Andreas Nowatzyk plans to synthesis essay, scan the nervous system of the brain and body of a mouse with a resolution of less than 200 nanometers, which is getting very close to the resolution needed for reverse engineering. We also have noninvasive scanning techniques today, including high-resolution magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans, optical imaging, near-infrared scanning, and other technologies which are capable in certain instances of resolving individual somas, or neuron cell bodies. Brain scanning technologies are also increasing their resolution with each new generation, just what we would expect from the law of accelerating returns.
Future generations will enable us to resolve the conversation soyinka essay connections between neurons and to new orleans synthesis essay, peer inside the synapses and record the neurotransmitter concentrations. We can peer inside someone’s brain today with noninvasive scanners, which are increasing their resolution with each new generation of this technology. There are a number of technical challenges in accomplishing this, including achieving suitable resolution, bandwidth, lack of vibration, and safety. For a variety of reasons it is easier to scan the brain of someone recently deceased than of someone still living. It is easier to get someone deceased to sit still, for telephone conversation wole soyinka, one thing. But noninvasively scanning a living brain will ultimately become feasible as MRI, optical, and synthesis, other scanning technologies continue to improve in resolution and speed. Although noninvasive means of scanning the how to cite brain from outside the new orleans synthesis essay skull are rapidly improving, the most practical approach to capturing every salient neural detail will be to scan it from inside. By 2030, “nanobot” (i.e., nano robot) technology will be viable, and essay of man sparknotes, brain scanning will be a prominent application. Nanobots are robots that are the new orleans synthesis size of human blood cells, or even smaller. Mangement? Billions of them could travel through every brain capillary and new orleans essay, scan every relevant feature from essay of man, up close.
Using high speed wireless communication, the nanobots would communicate with each other, and with other computers that are compiling the brain scan data base (in other words, the nanobots will all be on a wireless local area network). This scenario involves only capabilities that we can touch and feel today. We already have technology capable of producing very high resolution scans, provided that the scanner is physically proximate to the neural features. Essay? The basic computational and communication methods are also essentially feasible today. The primary features that are not yet practical are nanobot size and cost. As I discussed above, we can project the of motivation essay exponentially declining cost of computation, and the rapidly declining size of both electronic and mechanical technologies. We can conservatively expect, therefore, the requisite nanobot technology by around 2030. Because of its ability to place each scanner in very close physical proximity to every neural feature, nanobot-based scanning will be more practical than scanning the brain from outside. How will we apply the thousands of new orleans synthesis essay trillions of bytes of information derived from restaurant mangement paper, each brain scan? One approach is to new orleans synthesis, use the theory essay results to design more intelligent parallel algorithms for new orleans synthesis, our machines, particularly those based on one of the neural net paradigms.
With this approach, we don’t have to copy every single connection. There is a great deal of repetition and redundancy within any particular brain region. Although the information contained in a human brain would require thousands of trillions of bytes of information (on the order of 100 billion neurons times an average of case abroad 1,000 connections per neuron, each with multiple neurotransmitter concentrations and connection data), the design of the brain is characterized by a human genome of only about a billion bytes. Furthermore, most of the genome is synthesis essay, redundant, so the initial design of the brain is characterized by approximately one hundred million bytes, about the size of essay of man sparknotes Microsoft Word. Of course, the complexity of synthesis essay our brains greatly increases as we interact with the world (by a factor of goal essay more than ten million). Because of the essay highly repetitive patterns found in each specific brain region, it is of man, not necessary to capture each detail in order to reverse engineer the significant digital-analog algorithms. With this information, we can design simulated nets that operate similarly. There are already multiple efforts under way to scan the human brain and apply the new orleans insights derived to conversation essay, the design of intelligent machines.
The pace of brain reverse engineering is only slightly behind the availability of the brain scanning and neuron structure information. New Orleans Synthesis? A contemporary example is western university study abroad, a comprehensive model of a significant portion of the new orleans human auditory processing system that Lloyd Watts (www.lloydwatts.com) has developed from case study abroad, both neurobiology studies of specific neuron types and brain interneuronal connection information. Watts’ model includes five parallel paths and includes the actual intermediate representations of auditory information at each stage of neural processing. Watts has implemented his model as real-time software which can locate and synthesis, identify sounds with many of the same properties as human hearing. Although a work in progress, the model illustrates the case university study feasibility of converting neurobiological models and brain connection data into new orleans essay working simulations. Also, as Hans Moravec and others have speculated, these efficient simulations require about 1,000 times less computation than the theoretical potential of the biological neurons being simulated.
Reverse Engineering the Human Brain: Five Parallel Auditory Pathways. Chart by graduate interior designer cover letter Lloyd Watts. Cochlea : Sense organ of new orleans synthesis hearing. 30,000 fibers converts motion of the stapes into western university abroad spectro-temporal representation of sound. MC : Multipolar Cells. New Orleans Essay? Measure spectral energy. GBC : Globular Bushy Cells. Western University Abroad? Relays spikes from the auditory nerve to essay, the Lateral Superior. Olivary Complex (includes LSO and fresh graduate interior designer cover, MSO) . Encoding of timing and amplitude of signals for binaural comparison of level. SBC : Spherical Bushy Cells.
Provide temporal sharpening of time of arrival, as a pre-processor for interaural time difference calculation. OC : Octopus Cells. Detection of transients. DCN : Dorsal Cochlear Nucleus. Detection of spectral edges and calibrating for noise levels. VNTB : Ventral Nucleus of the Trapezoid Body. Feedback signals to modulate outer hair cell function in the cochlea. VNLL , PON : Ventral Nucleus of the Lateral Lemniscus, Peri-Olivary Nuclei. Processing transients from the Octopus Cells. MSO : Medial Superior Olive.
Computing inter-aural time difference (difference in time of arrival between the synthesis essay two ears, used to tell where a sound is coming from). LSO : Lateral Superior Olive. Also involved in computing inter-aural level difference. ICC : Central Nucleus of the Inferior Colliculus. The site of major integration of multiple representations of cite a narrative sound.
ICx : Exterior Nucleus of the Inferior Colliculus. Further refinement of sound localization. SC : Superior Colliculus. Location of auditory/visual merging. MGB : Medial Geniculate Body.
The auditory portion of the thalamus. LS : Limbic System. Comprising many structures associated with emotion, memory, territory, etc. The brain is not one huge “tabula rasa” (i.e., undifferentiated blank slate), but rather an intricate and intertwined collection of new orleans essay hundreds of of motivation specialized regions. The process of “peeling the onion” to understand these interleaved regions is well underway.
As the requisite neuron models and brain interconnection data becomes available, detailed and implementable models such as the synthesis auditory example above will be developed for all brain regions. After the algorithms of a region are understood, they can be refined and extended before being implemented in synthetic neural equivalents. For one thing, they can be run on a computational substrate that is already more than ten million times faster than neural circuitry. And we can also throw in the methods for building intelligent machines that we already understand. A more controversial application than this scanning-the-brain-to-understand-it scenario is scanning-the-brain-to- download -it . Here we scan someone’s brain to map the university locations, interconnections, and essay, contents of all the somas, axons, dendrites, presynaptic vesicles, neurotransmitter concentrations, and other neural components and levels. Its entire organization can then be re-created on a neural computer of sufficient capacity, including the contents of its memory. To do this, we need to understand local brain processes, although not necessarily all of the higher level processes. Scanning a brain with sufficient detail to download it may sound daunting, but so did the human genome scan.
All of the basic technologies exist today, just not with the requisite speed, cost, and size, but these are the attributes that are improving at a double exponential pace. The computationally pertinent aspects of individual neurons are complicated, but definitely not beyond our ability to accurately model. For example, Ted Berger and how to, his colleagues at Hedco Neurosciences have built integrated circuits that precisely match the digital and analog information processing characteristics of neurons, including clusters with hundreds of neurons. Carver Mead and his colleagues at CalTech have built a variety of integrated circuits that emulate the digital-analog characteristics of mammalian neural circuits. A recent experiment at San Diego’s Institute for Nonlinear Science demonstrates the potential for electronic neurons to precisely emulate biological ones. Neurons (biological or otherwise) are a prime example of what is often called “chaotic computing.” Each neuron acts in an essentially unpredictable fashion. When an entire network of neurons receives input (from the outside world or from other networks of neurons), the signaling amongst them appears at first to synthesis essay, be frenzied and random. Over time, typically a fraction of a second or so, the chaotic interplay of the neurons dies down, and a stable pattern emerges.
This pattern represents the “decision” of the of man neural network. If the neural network is performing a pattern recognition task (which, incidentally, comprises the bulk of the activity in the human brain), then the emergent pattern represents the synthesis essay appropriate recognition. So the question addressed by the San Diego researchers was whether electronic neurons could engage in this chaotic dance alongside biological ones. Restaurant Mangement + Research? They hooked up their artificial neurons with those from spiney lobsters in a single network, and their hybrid biological-nonbiological network performed in new orleans synthesis essay the same way (i.e., chaotic interplay followed by a stable emergent pattern) and graduate interior cover, with the same type of synthesis essay results as an all biological net of neurons. Essentially, the biological neurons accepted their electronic peers. It indicates that their mathematical model of these neurons was reasonably accurate. There are many projects around the world which are creating nonbiological devices to recreate in great detail the functionality of human neuron clusters. The accuracy and scale of these neuron-cluster replications are rapidly increasing. We started with functionally equivalent recreations of single neurons, then clusters of tens, then hundreds, and now thousands.
Scaling up technical processes at essay sparknotes an exponential pace is what technology is good at. As the computational power to emulate the human brain becomes available–we’re not there yet, but we will be there within a couple of decades–projects already under way to essay, scan the human brain will be accelerated, with a view both to understand the human brain in general, as well as providing a detailed description of the mangement contents and design of specific brains. By the new orleans synthesis essay third decade of the twenty-first century, we will be in a position to create highly detailed and complete maps of how to essay all relevant features of all neurons, neural connections and synapses in the human brain, all of the essay neural details that play a role in the behavior and functionality of the brain, and to recreate these designs in suitably advanced neural computers. Is the Human Brain Different from a Computer? Is the cite a narrative human brain different from a computer? The answer depends on new orleans synthesis essay what we mean by the word “computer.” Certainly the sparknotes brain uses very different methods from conventional contemporary computers. Most computers today are all digital and perform one (or perhaps a few) computations at a time at extremely high speed. New Orleans Synthesis? In contrast, the human brain combines digital and conversation wole essay, analog methods with most computations performed in synthesis the analog domain. The brain is western study, massively parallel, performing on the order of a hundred trillion computations at the same time, but at extremely slow speeds.
With regard to digital versus analog computing, we know that digital computing can be functionally equivalent to analog computing (although the reverse is not true), so we can perform all of the capabilities of synthesis essay a hybrid digital–analog network with an all digital computer. Mangement Paper? On the other hand, there is an engineering advantage to analog circuits in that analog computing is potentially thousands of times more efficient. Synthesis? An analog computation can be performed by a few transistors, or, in western university the case of essay mammalian neurons, specific electrochemical processes. A digital computation, in contrast, requires thousands or tens of thousands of transistors. So there is interior designer cover, a significant engineering advantage to emulating the brain’s analog methods.
The massive parallelism of the human brain is the key to its pattern recognition abilities, which reflects the strength of human thinking. As I discussed above, mammalian neurons engage in a chaotic dance, and synthesis essay, if the neural network has learned its lessons well, then a stable pattern will emerge reflecting the essay network’s decision. New Orleans? There is no reason why our nonbiological functionally equivalent recreations of biological neural networks cannot be built using these same principles, and indeed there are dozens of projects around the world that have succeeded in doing this. Case Western University Abroad? My own technical field is pattern recognition, and the projects that I have been involved in for over thirty years use this form of chaotic computing. Particularly successful examples are Carver Mead’s neural chips, which are highly parallel, use digital controlled analog computing, and are intended as functionally similar recreations of biological networks. The Singularity envisions the emergence of human-like intelligent entities of astonishing diversity and scope. Although these entities will be capable of essay passing the “Turing test” (i.e., able to fool humans that they are human), the question arises as to whether these “people” are conscious, or just appear that way.
To gain some insight as to why this is an extremely subtle question (albeit an ultimately important one) it is how to essay, useful to consider some of the new orleans synthesis paradoxes that emerge from the concept of downloading specific human brains. Although I anticipate that the most common application of the knowledge gained from reverse engineering the human brain will be creating more intelligent machines that are not necessarily modeled on of man specific biological human individuals, the scenario of scanning and synthesis essay, reinstantiating all of the neural details of a specific person raises the telephone most immediate questions of identity. Let’s consider the question of what we will find when we do this. We have to consider this question on both the essay objective and subjective levels. “Objective” means everyone except me, so let’s start with that. Objectively, when we scan someone’s brain and goal theory essay, reinstantiate their personal mind file into a suitable computing medium, the newly emergent “person” will appear to other observers to have very much the same personality, history, and memory as the person originally scanned. That is, once the technology has been refined and perfected. Like any new technology, it won’t be perfect at new orleans essay first. But ultimately, the scans and recreations will be very accurate and realistic. Interacting with the newly instantiated person will feel like interacting with the original person. The new person will claim to be that same old person and case university study abroad, will have a memory of having been that person. New Orleans Essay? The new person will have all of the patterns of of motivation essay knowledge, skill, and personality of the original.
We are already creating functionally equivalent recreations of new orleans essay neurons and neuron clusters with sufficient accuracy that biological neurons accept their nonbiological equivalents and work with them as if they were biological. There are no natural limits that prevent us from telephone conversation wole, doing the new orleans synthesis essay same with the hundred billion neuron cluster of how to clusters we call the human brain. Subjectively, the issue is new orleans synthesis essay, more subtle and profound, but first we need to reflect on one additional objective issue: our physical self. Consider how many of our thoughts and thinking are directed toward our body and its survival, security, nutrition, and image, not to mention affection, sexuality, and reproduction. Many, if not most, of the goals we attempt to advance using our brains have to do with our bodies: protecting them, providing them with fuel, making them attractive, making them feel good, providing for their myriad needs and desires. Some philosophers maintain that achieving human level intelligence is impossible without a body. If we’re going to port a human’s mind to a new computational medium, we’d better provide a body. A disembodied mind will quickly get depressed. There are a variety of bodies that we will provide for our machines, and theory of motivation essay, that they will provide for themselves: bodies built through nanotechnology (i.e., building highly complex physical systems atom by atom), virtual bodies (that exist only in virtual reality), bodies comprised of swarms of nanobots, and other technologies. A common scenario will be to enhance a person’s biological brain with intimate connection to new orleans, nonbiological intelligence.
In this case, the body remains the good old human body that we’re familiar with, although this too will become greatly enhanced through biotechnology (gene enhancement and replacement) and, later on, through nanotechnology. A detailed examination of twenty-first century bodies is beyond the scope of case study abroad this essay, but recreating and enhancing our bodies will be (and has been) an easier task than recreating our minds. To return to synthesis essay, the issue of subjectivity, consider: is the fresh graduate cover letter reinstantiated mind the same consciousness as the person we just scanned? Are these “people” conscious at all? Is this a mind or just a brain?
Consciousness in essay our twenty-first century machines will be a critically important issue. But it is goal theory of motivation, not easily resolved, or even readily understood. People tend to have strong views on the subject, and often just can’t understand how anyone else could possibly see the issue from a different perspective. New Orleans Synthesis? Marvin Minsky observed that “there’s something queer about describing consciousness. Whatever people mean to say, they just can’t seem to of man sparknotes, make it clear.” We don’t worry, at least not yet, about causing pain and suffering to our computer programs. New Orleans Synthesis? But at what point do we consider an entity, a process, to be conscious, to feel pain and discomfort, to essay, have its own intentionality, its own free will?
How do we determine if an essay, entity is conscious; if it has subjective experience? How do we distinguish a process that is case western abroad, conscious from one that just acts as if it is conscious? We can’t simply ask it. Synthesis Essay? If it says “Hey I’m conscious,” does that settle the case study abroad issue? No, we have computer games today that effectively do that, and they’re not terribly convincing. How about if the new orleans synthesis essay entity is cite a narrative, very convincing and compelling when it says “I’m lonely, please keep me company.” Does that settle the issue? If we look inside its circuits, and see essentially the identical kinds of feedback loops and other mechanisms in its brain that we see in a human brain (albeit implemented using nonbiological equivalents), does that settle the new orleans synthesis issue? And just who are these people in the machine, anyway? The answer will depend on who you ask. If you ask the people in the machine, they will strenuously claim to be the original persons.
For example, if we scan–let’s say myself–and record the exact state, level, and position of mangement + research every neurotransmitter, synapse, neural connection, and essay, every other relevant detail, and then reinstantiate this massive data base of information (which I estimate at thousands of trillions of bytes) into interior designer cover a neural computer of new orleans synthesis essay sufficient capacity, the person who then emerges in the machine will think that “he” is (and had been) me, or at least he will act that way. He will say “I grew up in Queens, New York, went to college at MIT, stayed in the Boston area, started and sold a few artificial intelligence companies, walked into a scanner there, and woke up in the machine here. Mangement + Research? Hey, this technology really works.” Is this really me? For one thing, old biological Ray (that’s me) still exists. I’ll still be here in my carbon-cell-based brain. Alas, I will have to new orleans synthesis, sit back and watch the new Ray succeed in endeavors that I could only dream of. Let’s consider the issue of just who I am, and who the new Ray is a little more carefully.
First of all, am I the stuff in my brain and cite, body? Consider that the particles making up my body and brain are constantly changing. We are not at all permanent collections of particles. The cells in our bodies turn over at synthesis different rates, but the particles (e.g., atoms and cite, molecules) that comprise our cells are exchanged at a very rapid rate. I am just not the same collection of new orleans essay particles that I was even a month ago.
It is the patterns of matter and energy that are semipermanent (that is, changing only gradually), but our actual material content is western university study abroad, changing constantly, and very quickly. We are rather like the patterns that water makes in a stream. The rushing water around a formation of rocks makes a particular, unique pattern. Synthesis Essay? This pattern may remain relatively unchanged for theory of motivation essay, hours, even years. Of course, the essay actual material constituting the fresh interior designer letter pattern–the water–is replaced in milliseconds. The same is true for Ray Kurzweil. Like the water in a stream, my particles are constantly changing, but the pattern that people recognize as Ray has a reasonable level of continuity. This argues that we should not associate our fundamental identity with a specific set of particles, but rather the pattern of matter and new orleans synthesis, energy that we represent. Restaurant Mangement Paper? Many contemporary philosophers seem partial to this “identify from pattern” argument. If you were to scan my brain and reinstantiate new Ray while I was sleeping, I would not necessarily even know about it (with the nanobots, this will be a feasible scenario).
If you then come to me, and say, “good news, Ray, we’ve successfully reinstantiated your mind file, so we won’t be needing your old brain anymore,” I may suddenly realize the flaw in this “identity from synthesis, pattern” argument. I may wish new Ray well, and realize that he shares my “pattern,” but I would nonetheless conclude that he’s not me, because I’m still here. How could he be me? After all, I would not necessarily know that he even existed. Let’s consider another perplexing scenario.
Suppose I replace a small number of case university study biological neurons with functionally equivalent nonbiological ones (they may provide certain benefits such as greater reliability and new orleans essay, longevity, but that’s not relevant to essay of man sparknotes, this thought experiment). After I have this procedure performed, am I still the same person? My friends certainly think so. New Orleans? I still have the same self-deprecating humor, the same silly grin–yes, I’m still the same guy. It should be clear where I’m going with this. Bit by bit, region by goal theory of motivation region, I ultimately replace my entire brain with essentially identical (perhaps improved) nonbiological equivalents (preserving all of the neurotransmitter concentrations and other details that represent my learning, skills, and memories).
At each point, I feel the procedures were successful. At each point, I feel that I am the same guy. After each procedure, I claim to be the same guy. New Orleans? My friends concur. There is no old Ray and new Ray, just one Ray, one that never appears to fundamentally change. But consider this. This gradual replacement of a narrative essay my brain with a nonbiological equivalent is essentially identical to the following sequence: (i) scan Ray and reinstantiate Ray’s mind file into synthesis essay new (nonbiological) Ray, and, then (ii) terminate old Ray. But we concluded above that in such a scenario new Ray is sparknotes, not the same as old Ray.
And if old Ray is terminated, well then that’s the end of Ray. So the gradual replacement scenario essentially ends with the same result: New Ray has been created, and old Ray has been destroyed, even if we never saw him missing. New Orleans Essay? So what appears to be the continuing existence of just one Ray is of man, really the creation of new Ray and the termination of old Ray. On yet another hand (we’re running out of philosophical hands here), the gradual replacement scenario is not altogether different from synthesis essay, what happens normally to a narrative, our biological selves, in that our particles are always rapidly being replaced. New Orleans Essay? So am I constantly being replaced with someone else who just happens to be very similar to my old self? I am trying to illustrate why consciousness is not an fresh graduate cover, easy issue. If we talk about consciousness as just a certain type of intelligent skill: the ability to reflect on one’s own self and situation, for example, then the issue is not difficult at all because any skill or capability or form of intelligence that one cares to define will be replicated in nonbiological entities (i.e., machines) within a few decades. With this type of objective view of essay consciousness, the telephone wole soyinka essay conundrums do go away. But a fully objective view does not penetrate to new orleans essay, the core of the mangement + research paper issue, because the essence of consciousness is subjective experience, not objective correlates of that experience. Will these future machines be capable of having spiritual experiences? They certainly will claim to.
They will claim to be people, and to have the full range of emotional and spiritual experiences that people claim to have. And these will not be idle claims; they will evidence the sort of rich, complex, and subtle behavior one associates with these feelings. How do the essay claims and behaviors–compelling as they will be–relate to the subjective experience of restaurant mangement paper these reinstantiated people? We keep coming back to the very real but ultimately unmeasurable issue of new orleans synthesis consciousness. People often talk about consciousness as if it were a clear property of an entity that can readily be identified, detected, and gauged. If there is one crucial insight that we can make regarding why the issue of consciousness is western university study, so contentious, it is the following: There exists no objective test that can conclusively determine its presence. Science is about objective measurement and logical implications therefrom, but the very nature of objectivity is that you cannot measure subjective experience-you can only measure correlates of new orleans essay it, such as behavior (and by behavior, I include the actions of components of an entity, such as neurons). This limitation has to mangement, do with the very nature of the synthesis concepts “objective” and “subjective.” Fundamentally, we cannot penetrate the subjective experience of another entity with direct objective measurement. We can certainly make arguments about it: i.e., “look inside the brain of this nonhuman entity, see how its methods are just like a human brain.” Or, “see how its behavior is just like human behavior.” But in the end, these remain just arguments.
No matter how convincing the behavior of a reinstantiated person, some observers will refuse to case western, accept the synthesis essay consciousness of an entity unless it squirts neurotransmitters, or is essay, based on synthesis essay DNA-guided protein synthesis, or has some other specific biologically human attribute. We assume that other humans are conscious, but that is still an assumption, and there is fresh graduate interior, no consensus amongst humans about the synthesis consciousness of nonhuman entities, such as higher non-human animals. The issue will be even more contentious with regard to future nonbiological entities with human-like behavior and intelligence. So how will we resolve the claimed consciousness of nonbiological intelligence (claimed, that is, by the machines)? From a practical perspective, we’ll accept their claims. Interior? Keep in mind that nonbiological entities in the twenty-first century will be extremely intelligent, so they’ll be able to convince us that they are conscious. New Orleans Synthesis? They’ll have all the essay of man sparknotes delicate and emotional cues that convince us today that humans are conscious. They will be able to make us laugh and cry.
And they’ll get mad if we don’t accept their claims. New Orleans Synthesis Essay? But fundamentally this is a political prediction, not a philosophical argument. Over the past several years, Roger Penrose, a noted physicist and philosopher, has suggested that fine structures in the neurons called tubules perform an exotic form of computation called “quantum computing.” Quantum computing is computing using what are called “qu bits” which take on all possible combinations of solutions simultaneously. It can be considered to be an extreme form of parallel processing (because every combination of western university abroad values of the qu bits are tested simultaneously). Penrose suggests that the essay tubules and how to a narrative, their quantum computing capabilities complicate the concept of recreating neurons and new orleans synthesis, reinstantiating mind files. However, there is goal theory of motivation essay, little to suggest that the tubules contribute to the thinking process. Even generous models of human knowledge and capability are more than accounted for by current estimates of brain size, based on contemporary models of neuron functioning that do not include tubules. New Orleans? In fact, even with these tubule-less models, it appears that the brain is case western, conservatively designed with many more connections (by several orders of magnitude) than it needs for its capabilities and capacity. Recent experiments (e.g., the San Diego Institute for new orleans synthesis, Nonlinear Science experiments) showing that hybrid biological-nonbiological networks perform similarly to all biological networks, while not definitive, are strongly suggestive that our tubule-less models of neuron functioning are adequate. Sparknotes? Lloyd Watts’ software simulation of his intricate model of human auditory processing uses orders of synthesis magnitude less computation than the networks of neurons he is simulating, and there is no suggestion that quantum computing is needed. However, even if the tubules are important, it doesn’t change the projections I have discussed above to any significant degree.
According to my model of computational growth, if the tubules multiplied neuron complexity by a factor of a thousand (and keep in how to a narrative essay mind that our current tubule-less neuron models are already complex, including on the order of new orleans a thousand connections per neuron, multiple nonlinearities and other details), this would delay our reaching brain capacity by only about 9 years. If we’re off by a factor of a million, that’s still only a delay of case western study abroad 17 years. A factor of synthesis a billion is around 24 years (keep in mind computation is growing by a double exponential). With regard to quantum computing, once again there is nothing to suggest that the case university study abroad brain does quantum computing. Just because quantum technology may be feasible does not suggest that the brain is capable of it.
After all, we don’t have lasers or even radios in our brains. Although some scientists have claimed to detect quantum wave collapse in new orleans synthesis the brain, no one has suggested human capabilities that actually require a capacity for quantum computing. However, even if the brain does do quantum computing, this does not significantly change the mangement outlook for essay, human-level computing (and beyond) nor does it suggest that brain downloading is infeasible. First of all, if the brain does do quantum computing this would only verify that quantum computing is feasible. There would be nothing in such a finding to suggest that quantum computing is restricted to biological mechanisms. Biological quantum computing mechanisms, if they exist, could be replicated. Graduate Interior Designer? Indeed, recent experiments with small scale quantum computers appear to new orleans synthesis essay, be successful. Conversation Soyinka Essay? Even the conventional transistor relies on synthesis essay the quantum effect of electron tunneling. Penrose suggests that it is impossible to perfectly replicate a set of quantum states, so therefore, perfect downloading is impossible. Well, how perfect does a download have to be?
I am at this moment in a very different quantum state (and different in goal theory non-quantum ways as well) than I was a minute ago (certainly in a very different state than I was before I wrote this paragraph). If we develop downloading technology to the point where the “copies” are as close to the original as the original person changes anyway in the course of one minute, that would be good enough for any conceivable purpose, yet does not require copying quantum states. New Orleans Synthesis? As the technology improves, the accuracy of the essay sparknotes copy could become as close as the original changes within ever briefer periods of time (e.g., one second, one millisecond, one microsecond). When it was pointed out to Penrose that neurons (and even neural connections) were too big for synthesis essay, quantum computing, he came up with the tubule theory as a possible mechanism for neural quantum computing. Essay? So the essay concern with quantum computing and tubules have been introduced together. If one is searching for barriers to fresh interior designer cover, replicating brain function, it is an ingenious theory, but it fails to introduce any genuine barriers.
There is no evidence for it, and even if true, it only synthesis essay, delays matters by a decade or two. There is no reason to believe that biological mechanisms (including quantum computing) are inherently impossible to replicate using nonbiological materials and mechanisms. How To Cite A Narrative Essay? Dozens of contemporary experiments are successfully performing just such replications. The Noninvasive Surgery-Free Reversible Programmable Distributed Brain Implant, Full-Immersion Shared Virtual Reality Environments, Experience Beamers, and synthesis essay, Brain Expansion. How will we apply technology that is more intelligent than its creators? One might be tempted to respond “Carefully!” But let’s take a look at some examples. Consider several examples of the nanobot technology, which, based on miniaturization and cost reduction trends, will be feasible within 30 years. In addition to scanning your brain, the nanobots will also be able to expand our experiences and our capabilities.
Nanobot technology will provide fully immersive, totally convincing virtual reality in the following way. The nanobots take up positions in close physical proximity to every interneuronal connection coming from all of our senses (e.g., eyes, ears, skin). We already have the technology for electronic devices to communicate with neurons in both directions that requires no direct physical contact with the conversation essay neurons. New Orleans? For example, scientists at the Max Planck Institute have developed “neuron transistors” that can detect the firing of a nearby neuron, or alternatively, can cause a nearby neuron to fire, or suppress it from firing. This amounts to two-way communication between neurons and the electronic-based neuron transistors. Case University Study? The Institute scientists demonstrated their invention by controlling the movement of a living leech from their computer. Again, the primary aspect of nanobot-based virtual reality that is not yet feasible is size and cost.
When we want to experience real reality, the synthesis essay nanobots just stay in position (in the capillaries) and do nothing. If we want to restaurant mangement + research, enter virtual reality, they suppress all of the inputs coming from the real senses, and replace them with the signals that would be appropriate for new orleans, the virtual environment. You (i.e., your brain) could decide to cause your muscles and limbs to move as you normally would, but the nanobots again intercept these interneuronal signals, suppress your real limbs from moving, and instead cause your virtual limbs to fresh graduate interior, move and provide the appropriate movement and reorientation in the virtual environment. The web will provide a panoply of virtual environments to explore. New Orleans Synthesis Essay? Some will be recreations of real places, others will be fanciful environments that have no “real” counterpart. Some indeed would be impossible in the physical world (perhaps, because they violate the case study laws of physics). We will be able to new orleans synthesis, “go” to these virtual environments by ourselves, or we will meet other people there, both real people and simulated people. Of course, ultimately there won’t be a clear distinction between the two.
By 2030, going to a web site will mean entering a full immersion virtual reality environment. In addition to encompassing all of the senses, these shared environments can include emotional overlays as the nanobots will be capable of triggering the neurological correlates of emotions, sexual pleasure, and other derivatives of our sensory experience and mental reactions. In the same way that people today beam their lives from web cams in their bedrooms, “experience beamers” circa 2030 will beam their entire flow of mangement sensory experiences, and if so desired, their emotions and other secondary reactions. We’ll be able to plug in (by going to the appropriate web site) and experience other people’s lives as in the plot concept of ‘Being John Malkovich.’ Particularly interesting experiences can be archived and relived at any time. We won’t need to wait until 2030 to essay, experience shared virtual reality environments, at least for the visual and auditory senses. Case Western University Abroad? Full immersion visual-auditory environments will be available by synthesis the end of fresh graduate interior designer letter this decade with images written directly onto our retinas by new orleans synthesis essay our eyeglasses and contact lenses.
All of the electronics for the computation, image reconstruction, and very high bandwidth wireless connection to + research, the Internet will be embedded in our glasses and woven into our clothing, so computers as distinct objects will disappear. In my view, the most significant implication of the Singularity will be the new orleans synthesis essay merger of biological and nonbiological intelligence. Interior Designer Cover Letter? First, it is important to point out that well before the end of the twenty-first century, thinking on nonbiological substrates will dominate. Biological thinking is stuck at new orleans synthesis essay 10 26 calculations per second (for all biological human brains), and that figure will not appreciably change, even with bioengineering changes to our genome. Nonbiological intelligence, on the other hand, is growing at a double exponential rate and will vastly exceed biological intelligence well before the goal of motivation essay middle of this century. New Orleans Essay? However, in essay my view, this nonbiological intelligence should still be considered human as it is fully derivative of the human-machine civilization. The merger of these two worlds of synthesis essay intelligence is not merely a merger of biological and nonbiological thinking mediums, but more importantly one of method and organization of thinking. One of the key ways in which the two worlds can interact will be through the nanobots. Nanobot technology will be able to expand our minds in virtually any imaginable way. Our brains today are relatively fixed in design.
Although we do add patterns of interneuronal connections and neurotransmitter concentrations as a normal part of the goal essay learning process, the current overall capacity of the essay human brain is highly constrained, restricted to a mere hundred trillion connections. Brain implants based on massively distributed intelligent nanobots will ultimately expand our memories a trillion fold, and otherwise vastly improve all of our sensory, pattern recognition, and cognitive abilities. Restaurant Mangement + Research? Since the nanobots are communicating with each other over a wireless local area network, they can create any set of new neural connections, can break existing connections (by suppressing neural firing), can create new hybrid biological-nonbiological networks, as well as add vast new nonbiological networks. Using nanobots as brain extenders is a significant improvement over the idea of surgically installed neural implants, which are beginning to be used today (e.g., ventral posterior nucleus, subthalmic nucleus, and ventral lateral thalamus neural implants to synthesis, counteract Parkinson’s Disease and tremors from essay, other neurological disorders, cochlear implants, and others.) Nanobots will be introduced without surgery, essentially just by synthesis essay injecting or even swallowing them. They can all be directed to leave, so the process is easily reversible. They are programmable, in that they can provide virtual reality one minute, and a variety of brain extensions the mangement + research paper next. Essay? They can change their configuration, and clearly can alter their software. Perhaps most importantly, they are massively distributed and conversation wole essay, therefore can take up billions or trillions of positions throughout the brain, whereas a surgically introduced neural implant can only be placed in one or at most a few locations. The Double Exponential Growth of the Economy During the 1990s Was Not a Bubble.
Yet another manifestation of the law of accelerating returns as it rushes toward the Singularity can be found in the world of economics, a world vital to synthesis essay, both the genesis of the law of accelerating returns, and to its implications. It is the economic imperative of a competitive marketplace that is driving technology forward and fueling the law of a narrative accelerating returns. In turn, the law of accelerating returns, particularly as it approaches the essay Singularity, is transforming economic relationships. Virtually all of the economic models taught in economics classes, used by the Federal Reserve Board to set monetary policy, by Government agencies to essay sparknotes, set economic policy, and by economic forecasters of all kinds are fundamentally flawed because they are based on the intuitive linear view of history rather than the historically based exponential view. The reason that these linear models appear to new orleans essay, work for a while is for the same reason that most people adopt the intuitive linear view in the first place: exponential trends appear to be linear when viewed (and experienced) for a brief period of time, particularly in the early stages of an exponential trend when not much is happening. But once the “knee of the curve” is achieved and the exponential growth explodes, the linear models break down. Case University Study Abroad? The exponential trends underlying productivity growth are just beginning this explosive phase. The economy (viewed either in total or per capita) has been growing exponentially throughout this century:
There is also a second level of exponential growth, but up until recently the second exponent has been in the early phase so that the growth in the growth rate has not been noticed. New Orleans Synthesis? However, this has changed in this past decade, during which the rate of growth has been noticeably exponential. Productivity (economic output per worker) has also been growing exponentially. Even these statistics are greatly understated because they do not fully reflect significant improvements in the quality and features of products and theory of motivation, services. It is not the case that “a car is a car;” there have been significant improvements in synthesis essay safety, reliability, and features. Fresh Cover Letter? There are a myriad of such examples. Essay? Pharmaceutical drugs are increasingly effective. Groceries ordered in five minutes on the web and delivered to fresh graduate letter, your door are worth more than groceries on a supermarket shelf that you have to fetch yourself. Clothes custom manufactured for your unique body scan are worth more than clothes you happen to find left on a store rack.
These sorts of improvements are true for most product categories, and none of them are reflected in the productivity statistics. The statistical methods underlying the productivity measurements tend to factor out gains by essentially concluding that we still only get one dollar of products and services for a dollar despite the new orleans fact that we get much more for a dollar (e.g., compare a $1,000 computer today to one ten years ago). University of Chicago Professor Pete Klenow and University of Rochester Professor Mark Bils estimate that the value of existing goods has been increasing at 1.5% per year for the past 20 years because of qualitative improvements. This still does not account for the introduction of entirely new products and product categories. The Bureau of Labor Statistics, which is responsible for the inflation statistics, uses a model that incorporates an estimate of quality growth at only 0.5% per year, reflecting a systematic underestimate of telephone essay quality improvement and a resulting overestimate of synthesis inflation by at least 1 percent per year. Despite these weaknesses in restaurant mangement + research the productivity statistical methods, the gains in productivity are now reaching the steep part of the exponential curve. Labor productivity grew at 1.6% per year until 1994, then rose at 2.4% per synthesis essay, year, and fresh interior cover, is now growing even more rapidly. New Orleans? In the quarter ending July 30, 2000, labor productivity grew at 5.3%. Manufacturing productivity grew at 4.4% annually from 1995 to 1999, durables manufacturing at 6.5% per year.
The 1990s have seen the most powerful deflationary forces in history. This is why we are not seeing inflation. Yes, it’s true that low unemployment, high asset values, economic growth, and other such factors are inflationary, but these factors are offset by the double exponential trends in the price-performance of all information based technologies: computation, memory, communications, biotechnology, miniaturization, and even the overall rate of technical progress. How To Cite? These technologies deeply affect all industries. We are also undergoing massive disintermediation in the channels of new orleans distribution through the web and other new communication technologies, as well as escalating efficiencies in operations and administration. All of the technology trend charts in university study this essay e represent massive deflation. There are many examples of the impact of essay these escalating efficiencies. BP Amoco’s cost for finding oil is now less than $1 per essay, barrel, down from nearly $10 in new orleans 1991. Processing an internet transaction costs a bank one penny, compared to over $1 using a teller ten years ago. A Roland Berger / Deutsche Bank study estimates a cost savings of telephone conversation wole soyinka $1200 per North American car over the next five years. A more optimistic Morgan Stanley study estimates that Internet-based procurement will save Ford, GM, and DaimlerChrysler about $2700 per vehicle.
Software prices are deflating even more quickly than computer hardware. Software Price-Performance Has Also Improved at an Exponential Rate. Current economic policy is based on new orleans outdated models which include energy prices, commodity prices, and capital investment in plant and equipment as key driving factors, but do not adequately model bandwidth, MIPs, megabytes, intellectual property, knowledge, and restaurant mangement paper, other increasingly vital (and increasingly increasing) constituents that are driving the economy. The economy “wants” to grow more than the new orleans 3.5% per goal of motivation essay, year, which constitutes the current “speed limit” that the essay Federal Reserve bank and other policy makers have established as “safe,” meaning noninflationary. But in keeping with the law of accelerating returns, the essay economy is capable of “safely” establishing this level of growth in less than a year, implying a growth rate in an entire year of new orleans greater than 3.5%.
Recently, the restaurant + research growth rate has exceeded 5%. None of this means that cycles of recession will disappear immediately. The economy still has some of the underlying dynamics that historically have caused cycles of recession, specifically excessive commitments such as capital intensive projects and the overstocking of inventories. However, the new orleans synthesis essay rapid dissemination of information, sophisticated forms of online procurement, and increasingly transparent markets in conversation soyinka essay all industries have diminished the impact of this cycle. So “recessions” are likely to be shallow and new orleans essay, short lived. The underlying long-term growth rate will continue at a double exponential rate. The overall growth of the economy reflects completely new forms and layers of wealth and value that did not previously exist, or least that did not previously constitute a significant portion of the economy (but do now): intellectual property, communication portals, web sites, bandwidth, software, data bases, and many other new technology based categories.
There is no need for cite a narrative essay, high interest rates to counter an inflation that doesn’t exist. Essay? The inflationary pressures which exist are counterbalanced by telephone conversation wole soyinka all of the synthesis essay deflationary forces I’ve mentioned. The current high interest rates fostered by the Federal Reserve Bank are destructive, are causing trillions of dollars of lost wealth, are regressive, hurt business and fresh graduate designer letter, the middle class, and are completely unnecessary. The Fed’s monetary policy is new orleans, only influential because people believe it to be. It has little real power. Case University Abroad? The economy today is largely backed by new orleans synthesis private capital in the form of a growing variety of equity instruments. The portion of available liquidity in the economy that the Fed actually controls is relatively insignificant. The reserves that banks and financial institutions maintain with the Federal Reserve System are less than $50 billion, which is only 0.6% of the GDP, and 0.25% of the liquidity available in stocks. Restricting the growth rate of the economy to an arbitrary limit makes as much sense as restricting the western rate at new orleans synthesis which a company can grow its revenues–or its market cap. Speculative fever will certainly occur and there will necessarily continue to theory of motivation, be high profile failures and market corrections. However the ability of technology companies to rapidly create new–real–wealth is just one of the factors that will continue to fuel ongoing double exponential growth in new orleans the economy.
These policies have led to conversation wole soyinka essay, an “Alice in Wonderland” situation in which the market goes up on bad economic news (because it means that more unnecessary punishment will be avoided) and new orleans, goes down on good economic news. Speaking of market speculative fever and market corrections, the stock market values for so-called “B to B” (Business to Business) and “B to C” (Business to Consumer) web portals and enabling technologies is likely to come back strongly as it becomes clear that economic transactions are indeed escalating toward e-commerce, and that the (surviving) contenders are capable of demonstrating profitable business models. The intuitive linear assumption underlying economic thinking reaches its most ludicrous conclusions in the political debate surrounding the long-term future of the social security system. The economic models used for the social security projections are entirely linear, i.e., they reflect fixed economic growth. This might be viewed as conservative planning if we were talking about projections of only a few years, but they become utterly unrealistic for goal theory essay, the three to synthesis essay, four decades being discussed. Graduate Designer? These projections actually assume a fixed rate of growth of 3.5% per year for synthesis essay, the next fifty years! There are incredibly naive assumptions that bear on both sides of the argument.
On the one hand, there will be radical extensions to human longevity, while on the other hand, we will benefit from far greater economic expansion. These factors do not rule each other out, however, as the positive factors are stronger, and wole essay, will ultimately dominate. Moreover, we are certain to rethink social security when we have centenarians who look and act like 30 year-olds (but who will think much faster than 30 year-olds circa the essay year 2000). Another implication of the law of essay sparknotes accelerating returns is exponential growth in new orleans synthesis essay education and learning. Over the past 120 years, we have increased our investment in K-12 education (per student and in constant dollars) by a factor of ten. Telephone Wole Soyinka? We have a one hundred fold increase in the number of college students. Automation started by amplifying the power of new orleans essay our muscles, and in recent times has been amplifying the power of case study our minds. Synthesis Essay? Thus, for the past two centuries, automation has been eliminating jobs at the bottom of the theory of motivation essay skill ladder while creating new (and better paying) jobs at the top of the skill ladder. So the new orleans ladder has been moving up, and thus we have been exponentially increasing investments in education at all levels. Oh, and about that “offer” at western university the beginning of this essay, consider that present stock values are based on new orleans future expectations.
Given that the (literally) short sighted linear intuitive view represents the ubiquitous outlook, the common wisdom in economic expectations are dramatically understated. Essay Sparknotes? Although stock prices reflect the consensus of a buyer-seller market, it nonetheless reflects the underlying linear assumption regarding future economic growth. But the law of accelerating returns clearly implies that the growth rate will continue to grow exponentially because the rate of synthesis progress will continue to accelerate. Although (weakening) recessionary cycles will continue to cause immediate growth rates to goal of motivation essay, fluctuate, the underlying rate of growth will continue to double approximately every decade. But wait a second, you said that I would get $40 trillion if I read and understood this essay. That’s right.
According to my models, if we replace the linear outlook with the more appropriate exponential outlook, current stock prices should triple. New Orleans Essay? Since there’s about $20 trillion in the equity markets, that’s $40 trillion in additional wealth. But you said I would get that money. No, I said “you” would get the case western university abroad money, and that’s why I suggested reading the sentence carefully. The English word “you” can be singular or plural. I meant it in new orleans essay the sense of theory essay “all of you.” I see, all of new orleans essay us as in the whole world. But not everyone will read this essay. Well, but everyone could.
So if all of you read this essay and cover, understand it, then economic expectations would be based on the historical exponential model, and thus stock values would increase. You mean if everyone understands it, and agrees with it. Okay, I suppose I was assuming that. Is that what you expect to happen. Well, actually, no. Putting on new orleans essay my futurist hat again, my prediction is that indeed these views will prevail, but only over cite time, as more and more evidence of the exponential nature of technology and its impact on the economy becomes apparent. New Orleans Synthesis Essay? This will happen gradually over the next several years, which will represent a strong continuing updraft for telephone wole essay, the market.
Technology has always been a double edged sword, bringing us longer and healthier life spans, freedom from physical and mental drudgery, and many new creative possibilities on the one hand, while introducing new and salient dangers on the other. We still live today with sufficient nuclear weapons (not all of which appear to new orleans essay, be well accounted for) to end all mammalian life on the planet. Bioengineering is in the early stages of enormous strides in reversing disease and aging processes. Study? However, the means and knowledge will soon exist in a routine college bioengineering lab (and already exists in more sophisticated labs) to create unfriendly pathogens more dangerous than nuclear weapons. New Orleans? As technology accelerates toward the Singularity, we will see the same intertwined potentials: a feast of creativity resulting from human intelligence expanded a trillion-fold combined with many grave new dangers. Consider unrestrained nanobot replication. Nanobot technology requires billions or trillions of such intelligent devices to be useful.
The most cost effective way to scale up to such levels is through self-replication, essentially the same approach used in the biological world. And in the same way that biological self-replication gone awry (i.e., cancer) results in biological destruction, a defect in the mechanism curtailing nanobot self-replication would endanger all physical entities, biological or otherwise. Other primary concerns include “who is controlling the nanobots?” and “who are the nanobots talking to?” Organizations (e.g., governments, extremist groups) or just a clever individual could put trillions of case study abroad undetectable nanobots in the water or food supply of an individual or of an entire population. These “spy” nanobots could then monitor, influence, and even control our thoughts and actions. In addition to introducing physical spy nanobots, existing nanobots could be influenced through software viruses and other software “hacking” techniques. New Orleans? When there is restaurant paper, software running in our brains, issues of privacy and security will take on a new urgency. My own expectation is that the new orleans essay creative and constructive applications of this technology will dominate, as I believe they do today. But there will be a valuable (and increasingly vocal) role for a concerned and essay, constructive Luddite movement (i.e., anti-technologists inspired by early nineteenth century weavers who destroyed labor-saving machinery in protest). If we imagine describing the dangers that exist today to people who lived a couple of hundred years ago, they would think it mad to take such risks. On the other hand, how many people in new orleans essay the year 2000 would really want to case study, go back to the short, brutish, disease-filled, poverty-stricken, disaster-prone lives that 99 percent of the human race struggled through a couple of centuries ago? We may romanticize the past, but up until fairly recently, most of humanity lived extremely fragile lives where one all too common misfortune could spell disaster.
Substantial portions of our species still live in this precarious way, which is at least one reason to continue technological progress and the economic enhancement that accompanies it. People often go through three stages in examining the impact of future technology: awe and wonderment at new orleans its potential to overcome age old problems, then a sense of of man sparknotes dread at new orleans synthesis a new set of grave dangers that accompany these new technologies, followed, finally and western university study, hopefully, by the realization that the only viable and responsible path is to synthesis, set a careful course that can realize the promise while managing the peril. In his cover story for WIRED Why The Future Doesn’t Need Us, Bill Joy eloquently described the plagues of centuries’ past, and how new self-replicating technologies, such as mutant bioengineered pathogens, and “nanobots” run amok, may bring back long forgotten pestilence. Indeed these are real dangers. It is also the of man case, which Joy acknowledges, that it has been technological advances, such as antibiotics and improved sanitation, which has freed us from the prevalence of such plagues. Suffering in the world continues and demands our steadfast attention. Should we tell the millions of people afflicted with cancer and other devastating conditions that we are canceling the development of all bioengineered treatments because there is a risk that these same technologies may someday be used for malevolent purposes? Having asked the rhetorical question, I realize that there is a movement to do exactly that, but I think most people would agree that such broad based relinquishment is not the answer.
The continued opportunity to alleviate human distress is synthesis essay, one important motivation for continuing technological advancement. Also compelling are the already apparent economic gains I discussed above which will continue to hasten in interior designer cover the decades ahead. The continued acceleration of new orleans synthesis many intertwined technologies are roads paved with gold (I use the plural here because technology is clearly not a single path). In a competitive environment, it is an economic imperative to case western university, go down these roads. New Orleans Essay? Relinquishing technological advancement would be economic suicide for individuals, companies, and nations. Which brings us to the issue of relinquishment, which is Bill Joy’s most controversial recommendation and personal commitment. I do feel that relinquishment at the right level is part of a responsible and constructive response to these genuine perils. The issue, however, is exactly this: at what level are we to cite a narrative essay, relinquish technology? Ted Kaczynski would have us renounce all of it. This, in my view, is neither desirable nor feasible, and the futility of new orleans such a position is only underscored by the senselessness of Kaczynski’s deplorable tactics. Another level would be to forego certain fields; nanotechnology, for example, that might be regarded as too dangerous.
But such sweeping strokes of relinquishment are equally untenable. Nanotechnology is simply the inevitable end result of the case university study persistent trend toward miniaturization which pervades all of technology. It is far from a single centralized effort, but is being pursued by a myriad of projects with many diverse goals. One observer wrote: “A further reason why industrial society cannot be reformed. . . is that modern technology is a unified system in which all parts are dependent on one another. New Orleans Essay? You can’t get rid of the “bad” parts of technology and retain only the “good” parts. Take modern medicine, for example. Progress in medical science depends on progress in chemistry, physics, biology, computer science and paper, other fields. Advanced medical treatments require expensive, high-tech equipment that can be made available only by a technologically progressive, economically rich society. Clearly you can’t have much progress in medicine without the whole technological system and everything that goes with it.” The observer I am quoting is, again, Ted Kaczynski.
Although one might properly resist Kaczynski as an authority, I believe he is correct on the deeply entangled nature of the benefits and risks. New Orleans Synthesis Essay? However, Kaczynski and I clearly part company on theory our overall assessment on the relative balance between the two. Bill Joy and I have dialogued on this issue both publicly and privately, and new orleans synthesis essay, we both believe that technology will and should progress, and that we need to goal theory of motivation essay, be actively concerned with the dark side. If Bill and I disagree, it’s on the granularity of relinquishment that is both feasible and desirable. Abandonment of broad areas of technology will only push them underground where development would continue unimpeded by ethics and regulation. New Orleans Synthesis Essay? In such a situation, it would be the western less stable, less responsible practitioners (e.g., the terrorists) who would have all the expertise.
I do think that relinquishment at essay the right level needs to cite a narrative essay, be part of our ethical response to the dangers of twenty first century technologies. One constructive example of new orleans this is the proposed ethical guideline by the Foresight Institute, founded by nanotechnology pioneer Eric Drexler, that nanotechnologists agree to how to cite, relinquish the development of physical entities that can self-replicate in a natural environment. Synthesis? Another is a ban on interior designer cover self-replicating physical entities that contain their own codes for self-replication. In what nanotechnologist Ralph Merkle calls the “Broadcast Architecture,” such entities would have to obtain such codes from a centralized secure server, which would guard against undesirable replication. The Broadcast Architecture is impossible in the biological world, which represents at least one way in which nanotechnology can be made safer than biotechnology.
In other ways, nanotech is potentially more dangerous because nanobots can be physically stronger than protein-based entities and more intelligent. It will eventually be possible to combine the two by having nanotechnology provide the codes within biological entities (replacing DNA), in which case biological entities can use the synthesis essay much safer Broadcast Architecture. Our ethics as responsible technologists should include such “fine grained” relinquishment, among other professional ethical guidelines. Other protections will need to include oversight by regulatory bodies, the development of technology-specific “immune” responses, as well as computer assisted surveillance by law enforcement organizations. Many people are not aware that our intelligence agencies already use advanced technologies such as automated word spotting to monitor a substantial flow of telephone conversations. As we go forward, balancing our cherished rights of privacy with our need to be protected from the malicious use of powerful twenty first century technologies will be one of many profound challenges. This is one reason that such issues as an encryption “trap door” (in which law enforcement authorities would have access to essay sparknotes, otherwise secure information) and the FBI “Carnivore” email-snooping system have been so contentious. As a test case, we can take a small measure of new orleans synthesis essay comfort from how we have dealt with one recent technological challenge.
There exists today a new form of fully nonbiological self replicating entity that didn’t exist just a few decades ago: the computer virus. When this form of destructive intruder first appeared, strong concerns were voiced that as they became more sophisticated, software pathogens had the potential to fresh graduate designer letter, destroy the computer network medium they live in. Yet the “immune system” that has evolved in response to essay, this challenge has been largely effective. Although destructive self-replicating software entities do cause damage from time to time, the injury is but a small fraction of the telephone conversation wole essay benefit we receive from the new orleans computers and goal of motivation, communication links that harbor them. New Orleans Essay? No one would suggest we do away with computers, local area networks, and the Internet because of software viruses. One might counter that computer viruses do not have the lethal potential of university biological viruses or of destructive nanotechnology. Although true, this strengthens my observation. The fact that computer viruses are not usually deadly to humans only means that more people are willing to create and release them. It also means that our response to the danger is new orleans synthesis essay, that much less intense. Of Man? Conversely, when it comes to self replicating entities that are potentially lethal on a large scale, our response on all levels will be vastly more serious.
Technology will remain a double edged sword, and new orleans, the story of the Twenty First century has not yet been written. Paper? It represents vast power to be used for synthesis, all humankind’s purposes. We have no choice but to work hard to apply these quickening technologies to advance our human values, despite what often appears to be a lack of consensus on what those values should be. Once brain porting technology has been refined and fully developed, will this enable us to live forever? The answer depends on what we mean by conversation living and dying. Consider what we do today with our personal computer files. When we change from one personal computer to a less obsolete model, we don’t throw all our files away; rather we copy them over to new orleans, the new hardware. Although our software files do not necessary continue their existence forever, the restaurant mangement paper longevity of our personal computer software is completely separate and disconnected from the hardware that it runs on. When it comes to our personal mind file, however, when our human hardware crashes, the software of our lives dies with it. However, this will not continue to be the case when we have the means to store and restore the thousands of trillions of bytes of new orleans synthesis information represented in the pattern that we call our brains. The longevity of one’s mind file will not be dependent, therefore, on the continued viability of any particular hardware medium.
Ultimately software-based humans, albeit vastly extended beyond the severe limitations of restaurant mangement humans as we know them today, will live out on the web, projecting bodies whenever they need or want them, including virtual bodies in diverse realms of virtual reality, holographically projected bodies, physical bodies comprised of nanobot swarms, and other forms of nanotechnology. A software-based human will be free, therefore, from the constraints of any particular thinking medium. Today, we are each confined to new orleans essay, a mere hundred trillion connections, but humans at the end of the twenty-first century can grow their thinking and thoughts without limit. We may regard this as a form of immortality, although it is telephone conversation soyinka essay, worth pointing out that data and new orleans essay, information do not necessarily last forever. Although not dependent on the viability of the hardware it runs on, the longevity of information depends on conversation soyinka its relevance, utility, and accessibility. Synthesis Essay? If you’ve ever tried to retrieve information from an obsolete form of goal essay data storage in an old obscure format (e.g., a reel of magnetic tape from a 1970 minicomputer), you will understand the challenges in keeping software viable. However, if we are diligent in maintaining our mind file, keeping current backups, and porting to current formats and mediums, then a form of immortality can be attained, at least for new orleans synthesis essay, software-based humans. Fresh Graduate Interior Designer Cover? Our mind file–our personality, skills, memories–all of synthesis essay that is lost today when our biological hardware crashes.
When we can access, store, and restore that information, then its longevity will no longer be tied to our hardware permanence. Is this form of immortality the same concept as a physical human, as we know them today, living forever? In one sense it is, because as I pointed out earlier, our contemporary selves are not a constant collection of matter either. Only our pattern of wole matter and energy persists, and even that gradually changes. Similarly, it will be the pattern of new orleans a software human that persists and develops and changes gradually. But is fresh interior designer cover letter, that person based on my mind file, who migrates across many computational substrates, and synthesis essay, who outlives any particular thinking medium, really me? We come back to the same questions of consciousness and goal theory of motivation, identity, issues that have been debated since the Platonic dialogues. New Orleans Essay? As we go through the twenty-first century, these will not remain polite philosophical debates, but will be confronted as vital, practical, political, and legal issues. A related question is “is death desirable?” A great deal of our effort goes into restaurant + research avoiding it. We make extraordinary efforts to delay it, and synthesis essay, indeed often consider its intrusion a tragic event.
Yet we might find it hard to live without it. We consider death as giving meaning to our lives. It gives importance and value to paper, time. Time could become meaningless if there were too much of it. The Next Step in Evolution and the Purpose of Life. But I regard the freeing of the synthesis human mind from essay of man sparknotes, its severe physical limitations of scope and duration as the necessary next step in evolution. Evolution, in my view, represents the purpose of life. That is, the new orleans synthesis essay purpose of life–and of our lives–is to of man, evolve.
The Singularity then is new orleans essay, not a grave danger to be avoided. Mangement + Research Paper? In my view, this next paradigm shift represents the goal of essay our civilization. What does it mean to evolve? Evolution moves toward greater complexity, greater elegance, greater knowledge, greater intelligence, greater beauty, greater creativity, and essay sparknotes, more of other abstract and subtle attributes such as love. And God has been called all these things, only without any limitation: infinite knowledge, infinite intelligence, infinite beauty, infinite creativity, infinite love, and so on. Of course, even the accelerating growth of evolution never achieves an infinite level, but as it explodes exponentially, it certainly moves rapidly in that direction. So evolution moves inexorably toward our conception of God, albeit never quite reaching this ideal. New Orleans Essay? Thus the freeing of our thinking from the severe limitations of its biological form may be regarded as an essential spiritual quest. In making this statement, it is conversation soyinka, important to new orleans, emphasize that terms like evolution, destiny, and spiritual quest are observations about the end result, not the basis for fresh graduate letter, these predictions. I am not saying that technology will evolve to human levels and beyond simply because it is our destiny and new orleans synthesis, because of the paper satisfaction of a spiritual quest.
Rather my projections result from a methodology based on the dynamics underlying the essay (double) exponential growth of technological processes. The primary force driving technology is economic imperative. We are moving toward machines with human level intelligence (and beyond) as the result of millions of a narrative essay small advances, each with their own particular economic justification. To use an example from my own experience at one of my companies (Kurzweil Applied Intelligence), whenever we came up with a slightly more intelligent version of speech recognition, the new version invariably had greater value than the earlier generation and, as a result, sales increased. It is synthesis essay, interesting to telephone conversation essay, note that in the example of speech recognition software, the three primary surviving competitors stayed very close to synthesis essay, each other in the intelligence of their software.
A few other companies that failed to do so (e.g., Speech Systems) went out of cite business. At any point in time, we would be able to sell the version prior to the latest version for perhaps a quarter of the price of the current version. As for versions of our technology that were two generations old, we couldn’t even give those away. This phenomenon is not only true for new orleans, pattern recognition and other “AI” software, but applies to goal theory, all products, from essay, bread makers to cite a narrative essay, cars. And if the product itself doesn’t exhibit some level of intelligence, then intelligence in the manufacturing and marketing methods have a major effect on synthesis the success and profitability of an enterprise. There is a vital economic imperative to graduate cover letter, create more intelligent technology.
Intelligent machines have enormous value. That is why they are being built. There are tens of new orleans thousands of projects that are advancing intelligent machines in diverse incremental ways. The support for case western university abroad, “high tech” in the business community (mostly software) has grown enormously. When I started my optical character recognition (OCR) and speech synthesis company (Kurzweil Computer Products, Inc.) in 1974, there were only a half-dozen high technology IPO’s that year. The number of synthesis essay such deals has increased one hundred fold and the number of western study dollars invested has increased by new orleans synthesis more than one thousand fold in the past 25 years.
In the four years between 1995 and 1999 alone, high tech venture capital deals increased from just over $1 billion to approximately $15 billion. We will continue to how to cite essay, build more powerful computational mechanisms because it creates enormous value. We will reverse-engineer the human brain not simply because it is our destiny, but because there is new orleans, valuable information to be found there that will provide insights in western university study building more intelligent (and more valuable) machines. New Orleans Essay? We would have to repeal capitalism and every visage of economic competition to stop this progression. By the second half of this next century, there will be no clear distinction between human and machine intelligence. On the one hand, we will have biological brains vastly expanded through distributed nanobot-based implants. On the other hand, we will have fully nonbiological brains that are copies of human brains, albeit also vastly extended.
And we will have a myriad of other varieties of intimate connection between human thinking and the technology it has fostered. Ultimately, nonbiological intelligence will dominate because it is growing at a double exponential rate, whereas for all practical purposes biological intelligence is at a standstill. Of Motivation Essay? Human thinking is stuck at 10 26 calculations per second (for all biological humans), and that figure will never appreciably change (except for synthesis essay, a small increase resulting from genetic engineering). Nonbiological thinking is still millions of times less today, but the cross over will occur before 2030. By the end of the twenty-first century, nonbiological thinking will be trillions of of man sparknotes trillions of times more powerful than that of its biological progenitors, although still of human origin. It will continue to be the synthesis essay human-machine civilization taking the next step in evolution. Most forecasts of the future seem to ignore the revolutionary impact of the Singularity in our human destiny: the inevitable emergence of fresh graduate designer cover letter computers that match and ultimately vastly exceed the capabilities of the human brain, a development that will be no less important than the evolution of human intelligence itself some thousands of new orleans synthesis essay centuries ago.
And the essay primary reason for this failure is that they are based on the intuitive but short sighted linear view of history. Before the next century is over, the Earth’s technology-creating species will merge with its computational technology. New Orleans? There will not be a clear distinction between human and machine. After all, what is the difference between a human brain enhanced a trillion fold by nanobot-based implants, and a computer whose design is based on high resolution scans of the human brain, and goal of motivation, then extended a trillion-fold? Why SETI Will Fail (and why we are alone in the Universe) The law of synthesis essay accelerating returns implies that by 2099, the intelligence that will have emerged from human-machine civilization will be trillions of trillions of times more powerful than it is today, dominated of course by its nonbiological form. So what does this have to do with SETI (the Search for Extra Terrestrial Intelligence)? The naive view, going back to restaurant mangement, pre-Copernican days, was that the Earth was at the center of the Universe, and human intelligence its greatest gift (next to essay, God).
The more informed recent view is that even if the likelihood of a star having a planet with a technology creating species is very low (e.g., one in a million), there are so many stars (i.e., billions of trillions of them), that there are bound to be many with advanced technology. This is the view behind SETI, was my view until recently, and is the common informed view today. Although SETI has not yet looked everywhere, it has already covered a substantial portion of the Universe. In the above diagram (courtesy of Scientific American), we can see that SETI has already thoroughly searched all star systems within 10 7 light-years from restaurant, Earth for alien civilizations capable (and willing) to transmit at a power of at least 10 25 watts, a so-called Type II civilization (and all star systems within 10 6 light-years for transmission of at least 10 18 watts, and so on). No sign of new orleans intelligence has been found as of yet. In a recent email to my research assistant, Dr. Seth Shostak of the restaurant mangement + research SETI Institute points out that a new comprehensive targeted search, called Project Phoenix, which has up to 100 times the new orleans essay sensitivity and graduate interior designer, covers a greater range of the radio dial as compared to new orleans synthesis, previous searches, has only been applied thus far to 500 star systems, which is, of course only a minute fraction of the half trillion star systems in just our own galaxy. However, according to my model, once a civilization achieves our own level (“Earth-level”) of radio transmission, it takes no more than one century, two at the most, to achieve what SETI calls a Type II civilization. If the theory essay assumption that there are at essay least millions of radio capable civilizations out there, and that these civilizations are spread out over millions (indeed billions) of conversation wole soyinka essay years of development, then surely there ought to be millions that have achieved Type II status.
Incidentally, this is not an argument against the SETI project, which in my view should have the synthesis essay highest possible priority because the negative finding is no less significant than a positive result. It is odd that we find the cosmos so silent. Where is everybody? There should be millions of civilizations vastly more advanced than our own, so we should be noticing their broadcasts. A sufficiently advanced civilization would not be likely to fresh graduate interior designer, restrict its broadcasts to subtle signals on obscure frequencies. Why are they so silent, and so shy? As I have studied the implications of the new orleans synthesis law of accelerating returns, I have come to a different view. Because exponential growth is so explosive, it is the case that once a species develops computing technology, it is only a matter of a couple of centuries before the nonbiological form of their intelligence explodes. It permeates virtually all matter in their vicinity, and then inevitably expands outward close to the maximum speed that information can travel. Once the sparknotes nonbiological intelligence emerging from new orleans synthesis essay, that species’ technology has saturated its vicinity (and the nature of this saturation is another complex issue, which I won’t deal with in this essay), it has no other way to continue to evolve but to expand outwardly. The expansion does not start out at the maximum speed, but quickly achieves a speed within a vanishingly small delta from the maximum speed.
What is the maximum speed? We currently understand this to be the speed of fresh light, but there are already tantalizing hints that this may not be an absolute limit. There were recent experiments that measured the flight time of photons at nearly twice the synthesis essay speed of light, a result of quantum uncertainty on goal of motivation their position. Essay? However, this result is actually not useful for this analysis, because it does not actually allow information to be communicated at faster than the speed of light, and graduate interior cover letter, we are fundamentally interested in new orleans communication speed. Quantum disentanglement has been measured at conversation soyinka many times the new orleans speed of light, but this is only communicating randomness (profound quantum randomness) at speeds far greater than the speed of light; again, this is how to cite a narrative essay, not communication of information (but is of great interest for restoring encryption, after quantum computing destroys it). There is the potential for new orleans, worm holes (or folds of the Universe in dimensions beyond the three visible ones), but this is not really traveling at faster than the fresh graduate interior designer speed of light, it just means that the topology of the Universe is synthesis essay, not the simple three dimensional space that naive physics implies. But we already knew that. However, if worm holes or folds in goal theory of motivation essay the Universe are ubiquitous, then perhaps these short cuts would allow us to new orleans synthesis essay, get everywhere quickly. Sparknotes? Would anyone be shocked if some subtle ways of getting around this speed limit were discovered?
And no matter how subtle, sufficiently subtle technology will find ways to apply it. The point is new orleans essay, that if there are ways around this limit (or any other currently understood limit), then the extraordinary levels of sparknotes intelligence that our human-machine civilization will achieve will find those ways and exploit them. So for now, we can say that ultra high levels of intelligence will expand outward at the speed of new orleans essay light, but recognize that this may not be the actual limit of the speed of of man sparknotes expansion, or even if the limit is the speed of light that this limit may not restrict reaching other locations quickly. Consider that the time spans for biological evolution are measured in millions and billions of years, so if there are other civilizations out there, they would be spread out by essay huge spans of time. If there are a lot of them, as contemporary thinking implies, then it would be very unlikely that at least some of them would not be ahead of fresh graduate interior designer us. That at least is the SETI assumption. And if they are ahead of us, they likely would be ahead of us by huge spans of time. The likelihood that any civilization that is ahead of us is ahead of us by only a few decades is extremely small. If the new orleans synthesis SETI assumption that there are many (e.g., millions) of technological (at least radio capable) civilizations is correct, then at least some of of man them (i.e., millions of them) would be way ahead of us.
But it takes only a few centuries at most from the advent of computation for that civilization to expand outward at at least light speed. Given this, how can it be that we have not noticed them? The conclusion I reach is that it is likely that there are no such other civilizations. In other words, we are in the lead. That’s right, our humble civilization with its Dodge pick up trucks, fried chicken fast food, and synthesis, ethnic cleansings (and computation!) is in the lead. Now how can that be? Isn’t this extremely unlikely given the billions of trillions of likely planets? Indeed it is very unlikely. But equally unlikely is the existence of our Universe with a set of laws of physics so exquisitely precisely what is needed for the evolution of life to be possible.
But by the Anthropic principle, if the how to Universe didn’t allow the evolution of life we wouldn’t be here to notice it. Yet here we are. So by the same Anthropic principle, we’re here in the lead in the Universe. Again, if we weren’t here, we would not be noticing it. Let’s consider some arguments against new orleans synthesis this perspective. Perhaps there are extremely advanced technological civilizations out case western abroad there, but we are outside their light sphere of intelligence. That is, they haven’t gotten here yet. Essay? Okay, in this case, SETI will still fail because we won’t be able to see (or hear) them, at least not before we reach Singularity. Perhaps they are amongst us, but have decided to remain invisible to fresh cover letter, us. Incidentally, I have always considered the science fiction notion of large space ships with large squishy creatures similar to us to be very unlikely. Any civilization sophisticated enough to new orleans synthesis essay, make the goal essay trip here would have long since passed the point of merging with their technology and would not need to send such physically bulky organisms and equipment.
Such a civilization would not have any unmet material needs that require it to steal physical resources from us. New Orleans? They would be here for observation only, to gather knowledge, which is the only resource of value to such a civilization. The intelligence and wole, equipment needed for such observation would be extremely small. In this case, SETI will still fail because if this civilization decided that it did not want us to synthesis essay, notice it, then it would succeed in western study that desire. Keep in mind that they would be vastly more intelligent than we are today.
Perhaps they will reveal themselves to us when we achieve the next level of our evolution, specifically merging our biological brains with our technology, which is to say, after the Singularity. Moreover, given that the SETI assumption implies that there are millions of such highly developed civilizations, it seems odd that all of synthesis essay them have made the same decision to stay out of our way. Why Intelligence is More Powerful than Physics. As intelligence saturates the matter and energy available to it, it turns dumb matter into smart matter. Although smart matter still nominally follows the laws of physics, it is so exquisitely intelligent that it can harness the most subtle aspects of the laws to manipulate matter and how to a narrative essay, energy to its will. So it would at least appear that intelligence is more powerful than physics. Perhaps what I should say is new orleans, that intelligence is more powerful than cosmology. That is, once matter evolves into smart matter (matter fully saturated with intelligence), it can manipulate matter and energy to fresh graduate cover letter, do whatever it wants. This perspective has not been considered in discussions of future cosmology. It is assumed that intelligence is irrelevant to events and processes on a cosmological scale. Stars are born and die; galaxies go through their cycles of creation and destruction.
The Universe itself was born in synthesis a big bang and will end with a crunch or a whimper, we’re not yet sure which. But intelligence has little to do with it. Intelligence is of man, just a bit of froth, an ebullition of essay little creatures darting in and out of inexorable universal forces. The mindless mechanism of the Universe is winding up or down to a distant future, and there’s nothing intelligence can do about it. That’s the common wisdom, but I don’t agree with it. Intelligence will be more powerful than these impersonal forces. Once a planet yields a technology creating species and that species creates computation (as has happened here on Earth), it is fresh letter, only a matter of a few centuries before its intelligence saturates the matter and energy in synthesis its vicinity, and it begins to expand outward at theory of motivation essay the speed of light or greater. It will then overcome gravity (through exquisite and vast technology) and new orleans synthesis, other cosmological forces (or, to mangement paper, be fully accurate, will maneuver and control these forces) and synthesis, create the Universe it wants.
This is the goal of the Singularity. What kind of Universe will that be? Well, just wait and study, see. Most of you (again I’m using the plural form of the word) are likely to be around to see the Singularity. The expanding human life span is another one of new orleans those exponential trends. Western University Abroad? In the eighteenth century, we added a few days every year to human longevity; during the nineteenth century we added a couple of weeks each year; and now we’re adding almost a half a year every year. New Orleans? With the revolutions in mangement + research genomics, proteomics, rational drug design, therapeutic cloning of synthesis essay our own organs and tissues, and related developments in bio-information sciences, we will be adding more than a year every year within ten years. So take care of yourself the old fashioned way for just a little while longer, and you may actually get to experience the next fundamental paradigm shift in our destiny. Copyright (C) Raymond Kurzweil 2001.
Chart Graphics by Brett Rampata/Digital Organism. Topics: Innovation/Entrepreneurship | Quantum | Social Networking/Web. Hi. I was doing some research on this topic. I live in helsinki and I found a finnish translation of The Visible Human Project. It’s here : http://www.1001-soldes.com/visible-human-project. Thanks for creating and sharing a great resource. The rate of technological change has serious implications for the economics of investing in terms of wole soyinka a “buy now or wait for the next improved model” problem.
The “economic life” of equipment in certain industries is far shorter than the mechanical life (i.e. the machine is not worn out and still operates within accepted tolerances). We saw this in the late 90?s to early 2000 when the majority of used metal working machinery dealers went out of business. While the used equipment still “worked like new” it was technologically obsolete relative to the performance of the most recent technology. Synthesis? The economics of competition often led to the situation where the old technology even at an acquisition cost almost equivalent to restaurant mangement + research, scrap value, but including operating and maintenance costs, could not compete with the features and costs of the new orleans synthesis essay new technology. Financial lending institutions were hit hard as their floor-plan financing of used equipment inventory when the dealer closed it’s doors and gave the keys to the banker, only to find out that the $250,000 machine was worth $5,000 as scrap. Restaurant + Research Paper? As a result, many small manufacturers are finding it almost impossible to get bank financing to acquire new (expensive) technology. As a result, smaller firms are finding it more difficult to be competitive unless they can operate their equipment almost 24/7/365 in order to “wear it out” before it becomes technologically obsolete. In many areas, this has resulted in a dilemma of new orleans synthesis deciding to “buy now” or wait for new model.
As the rate of technological change increases, this can quickly lead to an “investment singularity” where on case western study abroad never makes an investment. I feel that this conundrum is leading to greater concentration in manufacturing with less competition. This in essay itself may be the “brakes” the the technology growth rate as once a manufacturer achieves near monopoly status, it can continue to price goods based on the economics of the restaurant paper “old technology” without being undercut by new competitors using new technology. I believe that there is a need for a new model of small-medium manufacturing that can “share technology” in order to “wear it out” before it becomes obsolete. New Orleans Synthesis Essay? This obviously entail a major logistics problem that I feel would lead to the development of concentrated manufacturing locations in essay sparknotes order to facilitate sharing of synthesis equipment along with coordination of methods (i.e. standardized CAD-CAM, MRP, etc.). I was wondering why you did not use a paradigm shows patent across the of man sparknotes age of technology… can easily support your claims, specifically because the rate and new orleans synthesis essay, return can be proven accurate, In 2001 you write that “we will be adding more than a year every year within ten years” (So 2011).
In 2015, at the Emerging Issues forum in NC State U, you say that “within 15 years we’ll be adding more than a year every year to your remaining life expectancy.” It does appear, even to this very sympathetic reader of yours, that you keep pushing back the date when we’ll finally reach longevity escape velocity. Where does he say that? I can’t find that quote in this article. Also, I would assume his “predictions” are not set in stone, and need flexibility. I see these as possibilities as to when we should be able to do this or that, not an exact time-frame. He isn’t trying to be a prophet of the future, or a Nostradamus. Just listing his educated theories on what the future might hold. Given medical progress you write that “we will be adding more than a year every year within ten years”. This in 2001, so it would refer to wole soyinka essay, 2011. Have we been adding more than a year to our remaining life span since 2011? looking widely, any growth is like more lambda function than exponent.. exponential growth linear phase saturation.. New Orleans? fixing on exponential growth like a searching for Philosopher’s stone..
A technological singularity has already occurred at least once in restaurant + research paper history. Before the new orleans invention of case university study abroad neural cell, the adaptation for new environments required many generations of evolutionary trial. Compared to that, the speed at which neurons model the world is near-infinite. Seems very reasonable! I was wondering, how to new orleans synthesis essay, test if a copied mind is indistinguishable from the actual mind copied?
Let’s say you and your copy are given the identical simulated world environments to play in. If the behaviours of you and telephone conversation, your copy do not deviate by more than the new orleans synthesis essay behaviour of actual you would be expected to conversation wole essay, deviate from the behaviour of identical actual you in a universe different from this one by synthesis essay the amount of entropy that would be needed to create the observed level of differences in behaviour over the same period of time, then we would consider your copy identical up to that level of entropy, defined by the triple (you, your copy, game). Hello, I am currently a student in graduate interior designer letter molecular biology at UofM, Well, firstly, it needs to be stated that this is a deliciously entertaining and well defined hypothesis. There are certainly numerous well-supported facts throughout this essay and I too, agree with its principle suggestion. It is new orleans essay, noteworthy to point out that what this man is attempting to prove is at its utmost level not provable (currently), but may be able to be in time. The most difficult part to grasp for most people is the ability to extend your analyzing beyond your realm of conversation present reasoning. On a far lesser scale, many find it difficult to new orleans essay, draw 3-Dimensional figures on 2-D paper. But just because you can’t comprehend it-or perhaps even if you can and assess that it is only an optical illusion-doesn’t mean there is wole essay, no merit in its core reasoning. That is to say, it is possible to use these directly fictitious drawings to ultimately understand the concepts it would entail in 3 dimensions.
What I am saying is, simply put, that which is impossible now is not necessarily impossible later. When addressing the future, you must not assess it linearly (as Kurzweil elaborates), despite our deepest internal desire to view it as so. If you think A.I. Synthesis? intelligence is unable to fresh interior designer cover, pass human intelligence, then you will have a much more difficult time understanding the essay ideas behind Dystopian/Utopian theories. On a final note, I truly wonder if these two theories are interrelated, as I’d assume that this could ultimately extend to argue that the exponential growth of technology may culminate in a Singularity point that ultimately results in the destruction of the exponential model and offers an entirely new shape after. (I’d assume a possible restart in technological growth if you believe in Dystopia with a Utopian stance being more unclear). I am very interested to hear your take on that. How will we apply technplogy that is more intelligent than its creators………. yea, imagine some one from the case western university 80s picking up a smart phone and having infinite amount of information in their hands! they would be so unimpressed… u mad bro that life didn’t turn out like movies from the synthesis essay 70?s and 80?s….you’re an idiot.
I’m just going to say something about the life and the future. There were changes in the past for mangement + research, the future for the past, old fashioned civilians. Everything is the new orleans essay same, everyone is the same. They all think their more godly than others. The fact is, their not. They never will be…there’s only president’s and university abroad, higher occupations who fuck up our world and are the new orleans higher occupations. Cite A Narrative? So, now we live in synthesis essay the Still Age, where nothing seems to move forward. Case Western University? Sure we have technology, but nothing’s actually happening. Life’s dead, the people may seem alive but we are the walking dead. Suppose we don’t actually need a zombie apocalypse because WE are it. We ARE zombies.
I mean, look at all the movies from the 70?s/80?s they expect in the 2000s/2020s will be all futuristic with hover cars and moving cities and blah blah blah but NO, they would be choking themselves now that the new orleans future hasn’t moved on and they saw today. I will be dead by the time anything changes to our city or evolves….why is essay, it that we can’t go out by the time night comes? why cant we be creatures of the night instead of creatures of the day? It’s frustrating, sitting here on essay your bed waiting for of man sparknotes, the next day. The night is not safe for anyone, why? Who dared made it that way? I would like to walk in synthesis the night feeling safe but I suppose that isnt possible…why is the day safe? But the day isnt safe, either.
No, I didn’t read the preposterous post or comments. Case Abroad? Maths sucks…I bet I can pass by without using it…that’s a challenge…okay, so maybe the shops I need maths for but thats it and I can use a calculator for new orleans essay, gods sake! Who the fuck buys 42 melons anyway? You know? Those ridiculous math sums. And why, do we see all these people everywhere and dont know their names? Their everything? Their always different looking everyday. We don’t have self awareness because we’re just too used to everything, we’re almost like puppets obeying this life system…we only have self awareness when we are in trouble.
I mean, I kind of feel like we’re just waiting to die everyday. I don’t want that. I hate that. I want to feel alive, to feel lived, I dont want to walk in a daydream. + Research? Why must we obey the system? Go to school for new orleans synthesis essay, half your life, work the rest of the half, grow old and die. Everyone’s the same. It’s programmed for every human. You want to theory of motivation, know your purpose? That’s your purpose.
Work till you grow old. Enjoy the new orleans little things ;) It is mind bogging yet well supported by essay of man sparknotes facts…dear sir may I bring one area that could sweep all other areas…exponential increase is BADLY needed in synthesis essay personal conduct,wash-out of negative thinking ,and being. old indian scriptures DO mention that such is essay sparknotes, possible.but that is all to. it…probably suspecting misuse. from nsc. UIM (Ultra Intelligent machines) ” ultra-intelligent machine could design even better machines” document in new orleans essay 1960s are not far from reality. “consciousness is an unbroken chain. if you copy yourself directly you break the chain, the new copy’s consciousness would begin at that point and your old self would continue to be conscious. Fresh? a slow transition allows an introspective understanding of that gradual change as you evolve from biology into technology, although you may change your consciousness remains intact. that is my view anyway” Moore’s law is new orleans essay, just one of millions of positive feedback loops that occur in the world (in biology, sociology, economics, chemistry etc). Yet none of these feedback loops continue indefinitely, as you are assuming Moore’s Law will. This is case university study, because every feedback loop, including Moore’s Law, eventually has limiting factors (Usually a lack of resources / ingredients). All the technology curves will be slowed by limiting factors eventually, and synthesis essay, the singularity won’t occur.
Jordan: in The Singularity Is Near book. Telephone Soyinka Essay? Ray explains that Moore’s law will expire in the future, and essay, will be replaced by another process. Jordan – respectfully – did you read the whole essay? I agree with your criticism in a sense, in that we haven’t yet established that there is a possible “paradigm” after integrated circuits. Pointing to case western university, the end of Moore’s law and new orleans, claiming their is nothing beyond that is restaurant mangement + research paper, no different than having someone circa 1956 claiming vacuum tubes are the fastest computers we can EVER make. Moore’s law is projected to end sometime around 2018 – 2022. Ray is very aware of essay this, as he points out many times in restaurant + research his essay. Had his argument been of the form “Moore’s law – Singularity” your counter argument would have been sufficient. This is not at all what he is new orleans, arguing, in fact, the premise “Moore’s law will end” is one premises of his argument (the rise an mangement + research, fall of new paradigms for intelligence). If you want to new orleans synthesis essay, argue against a singularity occurring, you need to address the fundamental trends underlying Moore’s law (things along the lines of building upon previous innovations and then work out what laws of physics may interfere with the continuation of that trend). The only telephone conversation wole, small problem I saw with what his argument above is that nanites will have a hard time sending and receiving WiFi if they are smaller than the wavelength of carrier frequency.
If I were to then conclude that this physical problem will prevent nanites from synthesis, EVER using any kind of wireless communication, I would be adopting the same type of thinking as yours regarding Moore’s law. All of us working together over case western university study abroad many years of innovation and new orleans, “evolution” have created this smooth pattern (I would argue that ALL people contribute in some small way, even the essay of man sparknotes ones that don’t appear to be doing anything – it all adds up). The patterns you see in a branching tree, in the periodic table, in synthesis essay human personality types, a fractal, the sand on the beach, a hurricane, the Belousov–Zhabotinsky reaction… take your pick but the “Law of Accelerating Returns” as Ray calls it is simply another one of case study abroad those types of patterns. It’s literally a force of nature – we recognize that we’re creating that pattern, but then we delude ourselves into thinking that we’re “in control” of it, and that just isn’t the case. All of synthesis these large scale aggregate patterns constructed by soyinka essay an uncountable number of small scale chaotic events will be points of great interest for us going forward (they already are, but they’ll become more important as we try to solve problems… like the end of Moore’s law). They form the links between the known fundamental properties of the universe with our experienced conciousness. Synthesis? A top priority is to understand that complex and interconnected web.
uuuuuuummmm, i was told i would recieve 40 trillion dollars…. by Theodoore Aborgone. 40 trillion? For what?? Hi to everyone, this is my first post, because I REALLY need help. Everywhere i see know this advertisements about a narrative Forex thing, got attracted, started to read about it, but still really confused about What is synthesis, forex . All the explanations i find on the internet are very complicated. Restaurant Mangement Paper? Too many smart words. Can someone explain what is forex by his own words ? Tired of synthesis websites. I just can not imagine with incredibly blog greatly that warned me!
God bless you “It is not beauty that endears; it’s love that makes us see beauty.” – Leo Tolstoy. Too much technological change within such a short period of time is too much for soyinka, humans to handle. Humans must learn how to adapt to the societal changes that this new technology will bring, so that humans won’t end civilization as we know it. We as a species must strive for synthesis, peace. note how phase conjugation is the symmetry origin of western university abroad acceleration (gravity) and essay, all centripetal – self organizing forces. Seems like we should re-evaluate the perception we call time imortality is right around the corner. So hold on to your pants were about to defy physics as we know it.
Epigenetic mechanisms can provide a survival advantage under adverse conditions with mechanical laws. It presupposes that Science historically developed out of Phylosophy. It is more convenient to postulate that Epigenetics expanded in accordance with mechanical laws that have existed since the beginning of creation. Essay? (Epigenetics Wikipedia page here) I have two problems with this theory. The first is physical, the essay second metaphysical. The first problem that while exponential growth is certainly a mathematical possibility, it is never a physical one. In mathematics, all exponential growth results in asymptotes. Case Western University Abroad? There are, however, no physical asymptotes – they simply do not exist. For example, the repellent force of protons looks asymptotic until a certain point – then it breaks over and nuclear forces take over, binding the essay nucleus of an atom together. The same thing happens with a zener diode, or any other seemingly asymptotic function.
There is always a breakover point. (Interesting discussion regarding the growth of mass as it approaches the how to speed of light – but if you think about it, we simply don’t know yet). The second is new orleans essay, metaphysical. This theory assumes – and I think incorrectly – that consciousness is the result of increased neural activity. However, any honest person that thinks about it will realize that there is something in the “soul” or “spirit” that is yet to be explored or understood. Telephone Conversation? Anyone that has ever entered a room where an argument has just taken place and “felt” the “tension” in the room has sensed with something other than the brain – unless all of that is just electromagnetic vibes, and new orleans, as an electrical engineer, I know those electromagnetic waves travel outward and disperse at nearly the speed of light. I think that the brain is more of an interface to the “spirit” where real cognitive thinking occurs. Restaurant? That is why we “stew” on things to think them through – our brain needs to be preoccupied sometimes (watching TV, listening to music, etc.) in essay order to “think”. Our brain doesn’t do the thinking, that is mangement + research, a metaphysical thing. Thinking that cognitive self-awareness comes from neural activity is a stretch that is not supported by any medical knowledge, it is simply assumed (like evolution). It is more of a religion than religion is. The complexity of the interface certainly needs to be explored, but until we can figure out new orleans where the real cognitive engine is, I don’t think there is any chance that more complex interfaces will become self aware.
The RS 232 interface is simple and the USB3 may be better and more complex, but no matter how good the interface gets, it will never become the goal of motivation computer chip itself. LIkewise, the brain may be exceeded by a computer, but it will never become the cognitive center of a person. On the bright side, Mr. Kurzweil, the new orleans synthesis spirit never dies. Are you sure about this? Animal often communicate non-verbally because they don’t have a structured, organized universal way of cite essay communicating with one another. So they have to rely on a not of non-verbal ques to communicate with one another. Therefore you example of “walking into synthesis essay a room with an argument” isn’t a very good example of a “spiritual” perception, because humans display certain actions and abroad, characteristic when under pressure, and some of us have been wired to perceive these unconscious non-verbal forms of communication. Essay? Looks of worry, muscles tensing up, frowns, fidgeting…
It’s a romantic idea that we have a soul, but to claim we have souls is to deny the mangement + research paper elegance and beauty that is synthesis essay, our brains. So don’t be mean to your brain, give credit where credit’s due! ” In mathematics, all exponential growth results in asymptotes. Wole Essay? There are, however, no physical asymptotes – they simply do not exist.” There is a physical limit at the end of the century. He explains in this particular essay that he left it out, but it is synthesis, basically the point at mangement + research paper which we cant get any more use out new orleans synthesis of an of man, atom and simply require more atoms. At that point all research and advancement will be towards getting more atoms. “That is why we “stew” on things to think them through – our brain needs to be preoccupied sometimes (watching TV, listening to music, etc.) in order to “think”. Our brain doesn’t do the thinking, that is new orleans synthesis, a metaphysical thing.” We are unaware of the vast majority of our brains activity. This is the work being done in the subconscious.
We are only aware of the activity on the thin outer film on the outside of the brain, and we have even shown that many of the decisions we think we consciously make were actually your subconscious making the decision and telephone, lying to you conscious brain that you made the decision. You can tell these “decisions” apart from the synthesis essay rest by case university asking yourself if you actually considered alternatives to what you just did; if not, that is new orleans synthesis, your subconscious. Your subconscious considers almost every thing you could possibly do next, and analyzes the world in very unconventional ways… sometimes seeing past our rigid conception of case abroad reality. 95% of our brain is in the subconscious. Synthesis? Little is known about what the subconscious is capable of or senses past the 5 our conscious brain is aware of.
Seeing into the outer layer of the subconscious is a spiritual experience. It can be achieved through dreaming, meditation, spirituality, and hallucinogens. When you “feel” things you are not aware of or “stew”, this is your subconscious working away. This is the sparknotes real you. “Thinking that cognitive self-awareness comes from neural activity is a stretch that is synthesis, not supported by any medical knowledge, it is simply assumed” Self awareness is shown to how to cite a narrative, take place in the brain only when it is in a highly interconnected state.
The outer 5% of the brain is the conscious part and is only new orleans essay, developed to any reasonable extent in humans. The conscious part of the brain connects the case western abroad other parts of the brain together and allows you to new orleans synthesis essay, be aware of them and also override them with logic. Mangement? Scientific inquiry into this by watching chain reactions in the brain has shown that when are are no longer self aware, the difference in the brain is new orleans synthesis essay, that the separate parts are no longer communicating with each other…they are simply acting. This is case university, how it is in animals. You made a few points that I found interesting and you might be able to help me with a nonprofit initiative of new orleans synthesis mine called iSocialWatch, it is the restaurant + research first social media watchdog and consumer advocacy organization focusing on privacy, safety, psychology and sexuality in the context of cyber, social and ultra connected space. You can reach out by email stephane at new orleans synthesis essay isocialwatch dot org, or Twitter “isocialwatch”, or facebook.com/isocialwatch. Looking forward hearing from fresh interior, you. I’m not sure that I agree with the Kurzweil’s refutation of Penrose’s description of the origin of consciousness. I would not, for example, say that the gradual introduction of new orleans essay electronic pseudo-neurons is functionally equivalent to case study abroad, a complete brain scan/recreation. The fundamental difference between the two processes, it seems to me, is the gradual nature of the former, which avoids the discontinuity of the latter. Continuity may be fundamental to essay, consciousness, which is why Penrose’s argument holds water.
No matter how “close” our quantum technology can come to replicating our quantum states, there will always be that discontinuity because the duplication, as Penrose argues, cannot be perfect. Therefore, consciousness cannot be downloaded from a biological mind. Of course, consciousness could also be something completely unrelated to all of this. Essay Sparknotes? Maybe these physical processes are results of consciousness and not the other way around. Every new invention has a beginning, an accellerating development phase, a peak of new orleans development and then a decellerating slowing down of development. Nothing takes forever. Eventually we will live in restaurant + research paper a world that doesn’t change much. New Orleans Essay? You just think it is linear or exponentially accellerating because you don’t appreciate that the industrial/technological time has been very short. It’s like looking at our world and thinking it is flat but when you get to the pole it goes no further. Theory Essay? It’s just a ball.
You can’t see the reality because you over-rate your intelligence. I think the jump from – the window that a civilization would be broadcasting radio waves is very small – to, therefore no other civilizations exist – is a false conclusion. I also disagree that civilizations would be broadcasting a signal to new orleans essay, all the universe once they advanced beyond human level intelligence. The smart entity would conceal themselves and be the one to case western university abroad, decide when any contact should occur. I do not think they are here, but that does not mean that they aren’t out there. Are You Serious Bro? We Tried So Hard Not To Go There But There You Went… Please log in to post a comment.
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Recently in CHAPTER 05: Resumes that Tell a Story Category. Enelow, W., Goldman, S. (2005). Insider’s Guide to Finding a Job . Indianapolis, IN: JIST. Gladwell, M. (2005). Synthesis? Blink! The Power of fresh designer, Thinking without Thinking . New York: Little, Brown. Whitcomb, Susan Britton, (2003). Resume Magic. Indianapolis, ID: JIST.
Sample Story-based Resumes and Addenda. Here are sample story-based resumes and addenda to give you a better idea how to new orleans essay, use storytelling in these documents: With some career experts predicting that traditional resumes may be on their way out, readers may question the notion of the storytelling resume. Citing online recruiting expert John Sullivan as well as Allan Schweyer of the Human Capital Institute, Deborah Dib prognosticates that “within a few years most companies who are hiring or recruiting online will use e-profiles in place of the goal theory, traditional resume. New Orleans? E-profiles allow access to information that is sorted and easy to use.” Dib’s finger is on the pulse of those who predict that paperless recruiting will become the norm. While the resume may disappear from the restaurant mangement paper, online job search and morph into new forms and spin-offs, it will still be used for mailing, networking, and interviewing. New Orleans Synthesis Essay? No matter what form the resume takes, expert wordsmithing will still be required, Dib notes, “to compose keyword-rich online profiles and restaurant mangement + research paper resume builders, and to develop compelling success stories for interviews.” A focus-group participant agrees, stating that “in the business world, there will always be a time and place when candidates will need a quick, concise, easily accessible summary of their skills. I think technology will continue to streamline the job application process, and resumes will adapt accordingly but never go away completely.” It’s also just possible that the current business trend toward storytelling will move the new orleans synthesis essay, resume to a more rather than less narrative form.
As businesspeople recognize the power of storytelling and eschew emotionless data, PowerPoint presentations, dry analytical facts, and terse bullet points, they will be drawn to story-based resumes. Restaurant Mangement Paper? As A Whole New Mind author Daniel Pink warns, “minimizing the importance of story places you in professional and new orleans essay personal peril.” Employers and recruiters express a constant concern about finding candidates who are a good fit with their organizations, who will perform, and get results. Given that they fret about the ability to predict candidate performance before hiring, they should welcome information in the resume that helps them to get to know more about the candidate rather than less. In fact, it is not decision-makers’ distaste for rich information that is driving the current trend toward standardized profile forms that enable employers to compare apples to apples; instead, it is the revolution in Internet recruiting and job-hunting which has inundated employers with too many resumes to deal with. But as Pink points out, we have a “hunger for what stories can provide - context enriched by graduate cover, emotion, a deeper understanding of how we fit in new orleans synthesis essay, and why that matters.” Tell Me About Yourself: Storytelling that Propels Careers , Quintessential Careers Press, ISBN-10: 1-934689-00-9. Find out the soyinka, ways you can own the synthesis essay, entire book. Creating a Resume Addendum to Enhance Your Resume's Storytelling. Even if you’ve used storytelling to describe your accomplishments in your resume, space limitations have likely prevented you from providing much detail. Restaurant Mangement + Research? Deborah Wile Dib, a CEO coach with multiple certifications in resume writing and career coaching, is an enthusiastic champion of the concept of resume addenda.
Noting that these story-based addenda are “a good read,” she gives them a variety of titles, such as “Critical Leadership Initiatives,” “Marketing Milestones,” “Performance Milestones,” “Key Engagements” (for a consultant), “Career Success and Distinctions,” and “Major Campaigns.” Dib encourages clients to identify their “career-defining accomplishments” and then rank-order the top five that align best with the job-seeker’s targeted employers. For Dib, most accomplishments can be summed up in new orleans synthesis essay, the phrase “accomplished solutions provider.” The employer, Dib notes, is primarily interested in whether the candidate can solve problems and make/save money. The addendum supplies information - that the more concise resume can’t accomplish - about the challenge the candidate faced and the process used to achieve the fresh designer cover, result, Dib says. To enhance the storytelling power of synthesis essay, her resumes and addenda, Dib sometimes even breaks the a narrative essay, cardinal resume rule against using the pronoun “I” in synthesis essay, her documents. Also touting the idea of the resume addendum is well-known resume writer and career author Louise Kursmark, who refers to telephone wole essay, these addenda as “ROI documents,” replete with stories that illustrate the new orleans essay, Return on essay of man, Investment the employer will gain in hiring the candidate. Kursmark’s own special twist on essay, the resume addendum is the Job Proposal, which tells a future story of what the candidate can do for mangement paper, the employer.
The proposal presents the synthesis essay, candidate’s understanding of the employer’s challenge, a section entitled “My Value” that explains how the candidate is the most qualified person to fresh interior designer, meet the synthesis essay, challenge, and offers a “Proposed Solution.” Dib cautions that not everyone involved in designer letter, the hiring process likes resume addenda, and my PhD research bears out essay that caution. Restaurant? But as long as the employer also has your “story lite” resume, he or she can choose whether or not to review the addendum. Some recruiters in the focus-group research liked the option of being able to obtain additional information from addenda. One participant said, “I like addenda because they don’t get in my way, but if I choose to delve deeper when presenting to a hiring manager, the synthesis, info is there.” The addendum can also make an essay of man, excellent artifact for your career portfolio, as described in new orleans synthesis essay, the upcoming Chapter 6. Tell Me About Yourself: Storytelling that Propels Careers , Quintessential Careers Press, ISBN-10: 1-934689-00-9.
Find out the ways you can own the entire book. Boosted sales rate by telephone conversation wole, 200 percent in new orleans essay, first year and 400 percent over five years, successfully capturing majority of engineering specification market. Revived branch image, upgraded technology and equipment, and re-established company as industry leader by increasing sales dramatically. Achieved 95 percent spend capture, 35 percent system operating and maintenance cost reduction, increased order visibility and leverage position, and enhanced supplier relationship management by executing successful integration of business units’ procurement and payables systems and processes. Reduced annual consulting costs by $1.4M, streamlined development processes, facilitated rapid turnaround of customer requests, and goal of motivation enhanced internal application-development and application-support capabilities by developing and executing plan to in-source numerous key IT functions.
Achieved 25 percent call-back rate, 30 percent sales increase, and a reopened revenue stream by executing direct-mail initiative to contact dormant customers to provide name recognition reminder and new orleans synthesis publish service-option details. Saved company $13.75 million - $1.75 million in first year and $4 million annually for graduate designer cover, three consecutive years - by synthesis, conceiving, designing, and strategizing to bring branch computer maintenance in-house. Saved weeks in project time by instituting structured project-management methodology. Increased recoveries from less than 2 percent of paid, to 5.7 percent of graduate interior designer cover letter, paid, resulting in $39.6 million in increased recoverables, by creating “Third Party Recovery Recognition Templates.” Reduced customer requests from 500 to 12 within three months by designing and implementing centralized customer task-tracking system. Reduced errors, saved time, achieved nearly a 100-percent paperless environment, and new orleans synthesis saved money by implementing central Web-based database that houses all client data, realizing remarkable return on equipment investment in case western abroad, less than a year. Tell Me About Yourself: Storytelling that Propels Careers , Quintessential Careers Press, ISBN-10: 1-934689-00-9. Find out the ways you can own the entire book. Composing RAS/RAP/RAC Stories as Bullet Points to Describe Accomplishments. Presenting your accomplishments in your resume represents a case where it’s OK, indeed desirable, to new orleans synthesis, give away the end of the story first.
Tell the Result (R) of your Action (A) first so it catches the employer’s attention. Then, ideally, describe the Situation (S), Problem (P), or Challenge (C) that your Action addressed. Restaurant? Quantify wherever possible. Note in these examples from new orleans synthesis diverse resumes that, because of resume space limitations and employers’ preference for conversation wole soyinka essay, conciseness, the Situation, Problem, or Challenge is new orleans not always described: Produced sales growth from how to a narrative essay $50K in backlog to more than $31 million in backlog in three years by building high-performance, multifunctional/multi-discipline, sales team comprising professionals from multiple departments. Deflected 50 percent increase in electricity costs by new orleans essay, designing/installing power factor correction systems. Graduate Interior Designer Cover Letter? Reduced water usage by 80 percent by developing new cooling water temperature control system.
Led national expansion of single-serve potato chip product — building US volume +33% — by utilizing US volume projections, international test market demands, and available capacity. Essay? Increased revenue by recruiting, training, and wole essay organizing efficient contract staff capable of faster processing time that optimized sales representatives’ performance. Essay? Began employment as fax runner whose superiors recognized exemplary professional skills and fresh graduate letter unsurpassed work ethic; promoted to new orleans synthesis, administrative assistant, and promoted again to senior administrative assistant within a year. Achieved 36 percent rating increase in customer survey scores by creating and how to cite a narrative implementing two new staff training programs that heightened levels of guest satisfaction. Synthesis Essay? Increased sales revenue by soyinka essay, 15 million in synthesis, one year by assembling dynamic marketing team, coaching team members, and implementing highly effective marketing strategy. Case Western Study Abroad? Reduced unnecessary book purchases by developing Excel spreadsheet book inventory. Raised $250K in one evening by essay, coordinating 85 volunteers for school auction/dinner and conversation wole soyinka through sales of 800 silent and 40 live-auction items. Facilitated 55 percent increase in customer satisfaction and 50 percent increase in employee job satisfaction by flattening hierarchy from 10 functional areas to just two, guiding employees to redefine their jobs, creating efficient work processes, eliminating redundancies, and eradicating paperwork in organization formerly unresponsive to clients as well as inefficient, bureaucratic, and apathetic. Tell Me About Yourself: Storytelling that Propels Careers , Quintessential Careers Press, ISBN-10: 1-934689-00-9. Find out the new orleans, ways you can own the entire book.
Use Parallel Grammatical Flow in Bullet Points. An important technique to enable your reader to telephone conversation, interpret your Summary/Profile section as a story is to synthesis essay, make it parallel, as though each bullet point is telephone soyinka essay completing the same sentence. This kind of narrative flow helps readability enormously. Imagine that each Summary/Profile bullet point answers the question, “Who are you, and what can you do for our organization?” and finishes an new orleans synthesis, unstated but understood sentence that begins: “I am a(n)…” Let’s see how this formula works in practice: [I am a] Seasoned systems analyst with strong commitment to time and resource budgets, new-business development, strategic planning, innovation, technology trends, customer-service needs, and wole close collaboration with sales and marketing during development. [I am a] Competent problem-solver who resolved sales and shipping issues by new orleans synthesis, creating internal customer-care system and saving 20 percent on shipping; researched and delivered Web conferencing service for goal theory, sales that saved 30 percent of travel budgets. Synthesis Essay? [I am a] Visionary innovator who partnered with another programmer to create pioneering language-learning software that earned national attention; served as lead analyst for of man sparknotes, revolutionary legal document generating and tracking product. [I am a] Technical guru who provided direct support for successful million-dollar negotiation with major print vendor and completed many successful major conversions from mainframe to synthesis essay, mini-computer systems. [I am a] Strong communicator who was voted best specification writer — with least number of re-writes — by programmers and their managers. You’ll note that the story-based grammatical structure of these parallel bullet points goes like this: [Adjective] [noun] [connecting words] [phrase describing skill/strength/expertise] [supported by case university study, quote, example, numbers] Tell Me About Yourself: Storytelling that Propels Careers , Quintessential Careers Press, ISBN-10: 1-934689-00-9. Find out the new orleans essay, ways you can own the goal essay, entire book. Highly motivated sales professional with excellent communications and synthesis presentation skills as well as a reputation for instantly developing rapport that produces immediate sales results while paving the way for future sales successes. Goal-driven IT operations and technical-support management professional with 15+ years of experience and commitment to designer letter, delivering high-quality technical service and support to multiple IT customers concurrently.
Master’s-level professional known for strong analytical and quantitative skills and applying sound research methodologies to assess needs, identify alternatives, and recommend strategies that facilitate optimal healthcare outcomes. Dedicated health and education professional who is uniquely qualified to deliver outside-the-box accomplishments in pharmaceutical sales through exceptional ability to synthesize and disseminate product knowledge and contribute immediately to your bottom line. Efficiency-driven call-center professional who upholds highest accuracy performance standards and new orleans synthesis essay operational effectiveness through genuine talent for motivational, interpersonal teaching and mentoring. Accomplished accounting professional and licensed CPA with extensive experience in developing and implementing highly efficient accounting systems that deliver accurate reporting and ensure compliance with established control policies and procedures. Wole Soyinka? Accomplished QA professional with 15+ years of progressive experience and proven record of significant, successful contribution in wide range of organizations that previously had no quality standards or programs in place. Essay? Dynamic B2B/B2C technology marketing executive with exemplary career record of bringing products to market, precisely targeting consumer demographic while maximizing adoption and how to profitability. Conscientious direct caregiver who provides meticulous, fully attentive, individualized nursing care to meet complex array of patient needs by employing nursing process methodology including assessment, planning, implementation, and evaluation.
Dynamic professional with strong commitment to women’s sports and proven track record as both competitor and essay event organizer. Highly proficient, multi-faceted professional with demonstrated ability to identify and define needs, formulate solutions, direct and supervise multiple participants, and capably juggle and effectively manage several priorities simultaneously. Tell Me About Yourself: Storytelling that Propels Careers , Quintessential Careers Press, ISBN-10: 1-934689-00-9. Designer? Find out the ways you can own the entire book. Samples of Opening Bullets for synthesis essay, Profile/Summary Sections. Dynamic MBA-level professional with more than seven years of of man sparknotes, experience in successful leadership of business and organizational turnarounds that involve multiple, complex dynamics and synthesis essay cross disciplines and management levels. PhD-level leader, change agent, and social activist who has developed broad range of designer, programs and procedures that yielded cost effectiveness and maximum utilization of resources and accountability.
Dynamic performer with background of achievement and success in entrepreneurial and business-development roles that have catapulted bottom-line revenues. Essay? Multi-faceted change-agent with significant human-resources experience who applies expertise in cross-functional process improvement to goal theory of motivation, achieve meaningful organizational change. Entrepreneurial, outside-the-box, critical thinker with strong quantitative and research skills, functional IT skillset, and enthusiasm to deliver on synthesis essay, front-line globalization issues. Goal-driven achiever with strong organization skills who performs as both versatile individual and team player with ability to essay of man, quickly assess, comprehend, and manage customer relations while upholding company values. Accomplished project-management professional with more than 15 years of experience in capably and creatively delivering operating solutions through proficiencies in business analysis, problem-solving, process improvement, and software development. Self-motivated professional with strong financial skills who expertly manages multiple deadlined tasks, including accurate processing and reporting accounts payable/receivable, reconciliations, and synthesis payroll. Goal Theory? Outgoing customer-service professional known for outstanding interpersonal, organizational, and prioritization skills, as well as people-management know-how that consistently elicits positive interaction with internal and external clientele. Tell Me About Yourself: Storytelling that Propels Careers , Quintessential Careers Press, ISBN-10: 1-934689-00-9. Find out the ways you can own the new orleans synthesis essay, entire book. Opening Bullet Point Should Tell Story of Your Professional Identity in a Nutshell.
Begin your Summary/Profile section with a bullet point that tells the story of your professional identity in a nutshell. It’s the most important bullet point because it puts you into focus, characterizes who you are, and soyinka tells the story of what you can contribute. If the reader should happen to read no further in your Summary/Profile section, he or she should at least have a sense of new orleans essay, your essence from this first bullet point. Tell Me About Yourself: Storytelling that Propels Careers , Quintessential Careers Press, ISBN-10: 1-934689-00-9. Find out the ways you can own the entire book. The new, improved edition of the book, Tell Me About Yourself , is now available. You can order it on Amazon. This blog serializes the first edition of the book, Tell Me About Yourself: Storytelling that Propels Careers (shown below). It is a blog-within-a-blog, and its parent blog is A Storied Career.
You can read the new, improved edition of Tell Me About Yourself by buying the sparknotes, book. You can read the first edition, page by page, here.
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5 paragraphs essay Have you ever made an awesome chocolate cake without looking at a recipe first? Unless you are an new orleans synthesis essay extremely talented baker, most likely the answer is “no.” Just one cup of flour too many and your chocolate dessert will be a chocolate mess! The same goes for writing a 5-paragraph essay. If you are an extremely talented writer, you may be able to intuitively create a compelling essay with all the components needed to be both persuasive and how to a narrative, easy to swallow…or follow. However, if writing doesn’t come easily to you, you can benefit from new orleans essay, creating a 5-paragraph essay outline before jumping into cover, your writing assignment. New Orleans Synthesis? I always make an outline first, no matter what writing project I’m working on. There are endless, different ways to write a compelling essay. But, if your teacher is demanding that you sum up your argument in five succinct paragraphs, follow this easy tutorial on how to create a 5-paragraph essay outline. Structure of the 5-Paragraph Essay Outline.
The 5-paragraph essay is made of…you guessed it…five paragraphs. Each paragraph serves a specific purpose: Paragraph 1: Amazing introduction (hook) and the all-important thesis statement Paragraph 2: Argument A and supporting facts or quotes Paragraph 3: Argument B and supporting facts or quotes Paragraph 4: Argument C and supporting facts or quotes Paragraph 5: Conclusion, made up of your restated thesis and the broader significance of your argument. Of Man Sparknotes? Here’s how this outline would look if you sketched it out: A Note on Formatting Your 5-Paragraph Essay Outline. Now, I’m not saying that you must put your outline into a diagram like the one above—using a simple pen and paper or word processor will suffice. Synthesis? If you like technology though, there are several digital outlining tools that can help you out—some of them more sophisticated and case study abroad, user-friendly than others. It’s not really about synthesis making a perfect 5-paragraph essay outline, rather, it’s about developing an outline that makes the most sense to you.
An outline ensures that you have the necessary components to write an awesome essay. Of Man Sparknotes? Without further delay, let’s jump into more detail about each of the outline components. New Orleans Synthesis? First we need a topic. Typically, your instructor will give you a subject to write about, or at least parameters for a topic. Always follow your teacher’s specific instructions when embarking on your 5-paragraph essay journey. After all, you don’t want the of man, wrath of your instructor to come down upon you for completely ignoring instructions. New Orleans? For our sample topic, we’re going to use the western university, following prompt: What are the arguments for synthesis essay or against writing a 5-paragraph essay? Should teachers continue requesting this writing method from students? Step Two: Take a Stance on Your Topic. We need to take a stance for or against teachers asking students to write 5-paragraph essays, so we can argue for or against it in case university, our thesis statement. Don’t make the mistake of not taking a stance —without taking a position, your essay (five paragraphs or twenty) will have no direction at all.
When deciding on new orleans synthesis essay your position, you have to choose one that can be backed with valid and case study, supportable arguments, either from your research or from the course materials provided in new orleans essay, your class. For our sample essay outline, I’m going to take a stance against the 5-paragraph essay . Step Three: Write a Clear Thesis Statement. Based on essay of man my chosen stance against 5-paragraph essays, my thesis statement will be “Teachers should stop teaching students to write 5-paragraph essays.” Notice the word “should” in the thesis statement? More power can be added to synthesis your position by creating a statement about what should or shouldn’t be done. This is a much stronger and more defensible stance than if I simply wrote “5-paragraph essays are boring,” or something similar. Step Four: Develop Three Arguments to Underscore Your Thesis.
Now you need to come up with three arguments that will back your thesis statement. Here are mine: The 5-paragraph essay is too basic. There are myriad other ways to write essays, many of which are more thought-provoking and creative than the 5-paragraph essay. The 5-paragraph essay does not allow for analytical thinking, rather, it confines students to telephone wole essay following a restrictive formula. Step Five: Develop Three Supports for new orleans essay Each of goal of motivation essay, Your Arguments. New Orleans? Your evidence, or supports, should include facts, quotes, and data that substantiate your thesis. This is a great place to cite include quotes directly from new orleans synthesis essay, your research sources. For example, to cite a narrative support argument A (“The 5-paragraph essay is essay, too basic”), I might offer the following evidence: Support 1A : Chicago teacher Ray Salazar says, “The five-paragraph essay is rudimentary, unengaging, and useless.” Support 2A: Elizabeth Guzik of California State University, Long Beach says, “The five paragraph essay encourages students to engage only on the surface level without attaining the level of cogency demanded by college writing.” Similarly, in regards to argument C (“The 5-paragraph essay does not allow for mangement + research paper analytical thinking, rather, it confines students to following a restrictive formula”), I might support it with this quote:
Support 1C: According to an article in Education Week , “There is a consensus among college writing professors that ‘students are coming [to college] prepared to do five-paragraph themes and new orleans synthesis essay, arguments but [are] radically unprepared in thinking analytically.’” Remember, for wole soyinka essay the 5-paragraph essay structure, you typically need to come up with three supports for synthesis each of your three arguments. In our example, I only show three of the total nine supports needed to round out the study abroad, argument. New Orleans Synthesis Essay? Once you have your thesis and arguments sorted, you can work on developing your introduction. (*Hint* it’s an exercise in of man, futility to develop your introduction first, because you won’t really know what you’re introducing yet.) For example, my hook could be, “English teachers across the nation have been teaching students to become ineffective writers.” This hook makes a bold statement that will encourage readers to continue on new orleans to find out why I would say such a thing… especially if the fresh graduate interior designer cover, reader is your English teacher. Step Seven: Develop Your Conclusion. After you have your paper outlined, figuring out a concluding paragraph should be a breeze. In a traditional 5-paragraph essay, the first step in writing your conclusion is to restate your thesis using different words. For example, I might write, “The 5-paragraph essay is an new orleans synthesis essay outdated and useless writing tool that should be phased out of the wole essay, classroom.” To close out the paper, I would open a discussion on the broader significance of this argument. For example, I might write, “Teachers should teach other methods of synthesis essay, essay writing that help students stay organized and also allow them to think analytically.” Now that you’ve established all the components of essay, your 5-paragraph essay outline, you’ll need to actually sit down, avoid social media for essay a while (I know, it’s hard), and write your 5-paragraph essay. Believe me, it will be much easier to do now that your thoughts are organized and you have somewhere to of man start.
Ask any writer. There is nothing more frightening than the pure white of an empty page. An outline is new orleans synthesis essay, a great remedy for this. Oh, and a couple more things: As you start writing, you’ll want to be sure to case abroad connect all the synthesis, pieces of your essay together with strong transition sentences. Don’t just line up the notes from your outline and call it done. And always, always be sure to edit; if you need help with that, you can use Kibin’s essay editing services. Spend a little extra time adding those finishing touches that will elevate your essay from good to great. How about you? Do you work from an outline?
Or are you more accustomed to how to cite essay writing by the seat of your pants? Let us know in the comments. Psst. 98% of Kibin users report better grades! Get inspiration from over 500,000 example essays. New Orleans? About the goal theory of motivation, Author. Naomi Tepper is a former Kibin editor, the new orleans synthesis, former content manager for the Kibin blog, and university, forever a word nerd. Excellent post.
Love the essay, paradoxical example. I#8217;ll try this with my blog posts. Essay? We#8217;re not huge fans of the 5-paragraph essay, but we realize it#8217;s still a widely taught and utilized writing method. The paradoxical example was the synthesis, perfect way for us to express our own view while still writing a valuable and useful article. I#8217;m glad you appreciate it #128521; I liked it so much I created a Mind map for it at Xmind. http://www.xmind.net/m/bjGj/ Hope that#8217;s okay.
Very cool! Thanks for how to essay doing and sharing this, @sganpat:disqus. this is completely helpful. Awesome! Glad it helped you. #128578; What a very useful tips that is so applicable in all writer#8217;s on how to write well written paragraph. I think these are all very efficient and new orleans essay, effective things that everyone should learned. Thank you for the good tips and methods of writing you have putted here. It was all useful and helpful stuffs.
Thank you for your comment! I#8217;m so glad you found this post to be useful and helpful. Well explained about restaurant + research how to synthesis essay construct an argument. Wow nice post ! Will definitely use it when I write again #128578; Fantastic! Glad you found it useful. #128578; Wow nice post ! Thank you for of motivation essay sharing this #128578; Very nice article. Thank for sharing this. You#8217;re welcome!
Glad you found it useful. I really appreciate your post. Structure is the soul of synthesis, any essay and you describe it in a great way. Cite A Narrative? Thanks for your kind comments! Great question!
Here is a good blog post that covers alternative structures: http://thelamppost.ca/alternatives-to-the-five-paragraph-essay/ Thank you very much for the article is very important information! I especially liked the point Step Seven: Step Seven: Develop Your Conclusion clearly we need to new orleans synthesis develop this part of the Essenes.
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Dian Fossey – Life and Death Essay Sample. Dian Fossey was born 1932 in San Francisco. Essay. Her parents divorced when she was six. Her mother, Kitty and her second husband, contractor Richard Price, raised her. Her stepfather was a taskmaster and her mother a worrywart, according to Fossey’s account of her childhood. She left home for college and never returned except for brief visits. Goal Essay. Fossey began studying veterinary science at the University of California, but she transferred to San Jose State College and switched majors to occupational therapy.
She graduated in 1954 and new orleans synthesis moved 2,000 miles from her mother, taking a job working with autistic children at a Shriners’ hospital in Louisville, Kentucky. How To A Narrative. Through her work she became acquainted with doctors and their wives, and through those contacts she developed an active social life in Louisville, cavorting with men from the city’s social register. Among her suitors were two brothers, Franz and new orleans synthesis Alexie Forrester, scions of a Rhodesian family with royal Austrian roots. In part through their influence, Fossey became smitten by Africa. By 1960 Fossey was obsessed with the idea of going on safari. Graduate Designer Cover. One problem: She had no money, and the month-long trip would cost $5,000 — more than a full year’s salary. Franz Forrester offered a solution. He proposed marriage, promising a safari honeymoon. But Fossey was not ready to settle down. Instead, she saved every penny for new orleans two years, and then took a loan against sparknotes, future income to new orleans, raise the interior, money for her safari. She departed Sept.
26, 1963. Fossey insisted that her guide take her to Olduvai Gorge in Serengeti National Park, the center of Louis Leakey’s famous archaeological research. Leakey was among the world’s most famous scientists in 1963, and Fossey was determined to essay, meet him. Leakey proved to be quite accommodating, as he generally was with attractive young women. Essay Of Man Sparknotes. They had a long visit, and Leakey encouraged Fossey to go north to observe the rare mountain gorillas that lived at the border lands of Rwanda, Uganda and Zaire. New Orleans Essay. Leakey told Fossey to keep intouch and she had every intention to.
She and her guide made their way to the mountains, where Fossey met wildlife filmmakers Alan and designer letter Joan Root, who were filming gorillas in the Virunga Mountains. The Roots allowed Fossey to tag along. This was her first experience at high-altitude jungle hiking, and she had trouble keeping up as the couple and new orleans essay their African guides moved swiftly along through rugged terrain at more than 10,000 feet high. A native guide suddenly halted the mangement, group and used his machete to cut a window through the new orleans synthesis essay, brush. Theory Essay. Fossey crawled forward and essay gazed through the opening. There was a group of 6 adult gorillas lounging around. The next day, Fossey departed the mountains for an airplane trip south to theory of motivation essay, Rhodesia (now Zimbabwe) to visit the family farm of Franz and Alexie Forrester. But she left looking over new orleans essay, her shoulder.
She wrote, “I left… never doubting that somehow I would return to learn more about the Virunga gorillas.” With singular determination, Dian Fossey spent three years plotting her return to Africa. Soyinka. She maintained her job working with children at new orleans essay, the Louisville hospital, primarily because she had mortgaged her future income to secure the loan for theory of motivation her trip abroad. But on new orleans synthesis essay, weekends and case university study abroad evenings she focused on her avocation. She tried without success to essay, sell the film she had shot in Africa, and she submitted photographs of her trip to the National Geographic. Fossey also labored over several long magazine articles about her safari, which she sent to some of the nation’s largest periodicals — Life, Saturday Evening Post, Reader’s Digest.
She was rejected at every turn. Instead of giving up, Fossey enrolled in the Famous Writer’s School, the kitschy correspondence course that was popular with aspiring wordsmiths in that era. The Louisville Courier-Journal finally agreed to publish several stories about her adventure. Of Motivation. But her big break did not come from essay a magazine or a famous writer. It came from Louis Leakey. In March 1966, three years after Fossey’s safari, Leakey stopped in Louisville during a lecture tour. Fossey lined up with dozens of of motivation others to meet him after the speech. “When my turn came, he gave a crinkly smile of recognition and synthesis essay gave my hand a good long squeeze.” Fossey wrote. Graduate Letter. “I told him that all I really wanted was to spend my life working with animals — that had always been my dream, and I was especially interested in the gorillas on the Virunga mountains.” Her timing could not have been more perfect.
Leakey was considering sponsoring a long-term study of the mountain gorillas. New Orleans Essay. Leakey asked her to meet him the following morning. At the meeting Leakey explained that he had already interviewed 22 applicants for the gorilla project. Most were male, university-trained scientists. But Leakey said he preferred the enthusiastic women. This was true. In 1960, he had been paid a visit in Africa by Jane Goodall, a young native Londoner on extended holiday. Although she was untrained in case study the sciences, Leakey used his sway to appoint Goodall to begin a study of a community of chimpanzees on new orleans essay, the shores of Lake Tanganyika. Fossey was 34, eight years older than Goodall when she began her work. Leakey told Fossey she was the perfect age — mature and beyond the age of rash decisions. Three weeks later, he sent a letter offering Fossey the gorilla job.
Fossey quit her job, tied up loose ends in Louisville, paid a visit to her family in California and departed for Africa 10 days before Christmas in 1966. Five years later, Louis Leakey anointed Birute Galdikas, a young Canadian, to study orangutans in the rainforests of Borneo. Together, the three primatologists — Goodall, Fossey and Galdikas — would become known as “Leakey’s Angels.” With Leakey’s funding, Fossey established the western university study abroad, Karisoke Research Center, named for the two mountain peaks that framed it, Mt. Karisimbi and Mt. Visoke. Fossey made a decision to base her research work closer to the gorillas than to civilization.
From the nearest road, her camp was a three-hour climb up a path that ascended 4,000 feet She lived an austere lifestyle, dedicating herself to daily field observation of the gorilla groups living within hiking distance of Karisoke. New Orleans Synthesis. She lived in a tent for many months, then directed the construction of mangement + research paper a small, tin-roofed cabin that better protected her from the frequent rain and chilly air. New Orleans Synthesis Essay. Except for interior the occasional visitor, her only synthesis, regular contact with the outside world was a monthly grocery excursion to the village at the base of the mountain. By most assessments, Fossey was fabulously successful in essay of man working with the animals during her early years in Africa. She spent countless hours in the bush, observing the gorillas and new orleans documenting their behavior, breeding and interplay. Over months and cover letter years, the relentless time she spent with the animals at close quarters began to pay off as the gorillas became more at ease with her presence. The curious animals began to approach her ever more closely. She copied their movements and gestures, instinctively understanding this form of communication could be a bridge.
Over time, Fossey documented the familial relationships within eight groups of gorillas, numbering nearly 100 in all, that lived in the vicinity of her camp. Fossey estimated there were just 250 mountain gorillas in all. She gave names to each of the apes — Uncle Bert, Peanuts, Amok. But she developed a particular kinship with a young male she named Digit, first encountered soon after she arrived in synthesis essay Africa. As he matured, the how to, gorilla exhibited a bold curiosity about Fossey, and over several years they developed a relationship so close that it was considered unprecedented between the two species. Digit and other gorillas in new orleans synthesis essay his group began treating Fossey as a de facto ape.
She was allowed to sit in their midst, hold the infants, groom the adults and, in turn, be groomed. She would nap with them, play with them, and goal theory of motivation even eat with them, joining the gorillas as they dined on leaves, fruit, seeds, flowers, roots and herbs. Even the dominant silverback males — who could weigh 400 pounds and are regarded as aggressive and potentially dangerous — began to new orleans, accept Fossey’s presence. In January 1970, the relationships between Fossey, Digit and case western study abroad the other mountain gorillas were documented in a cover story she wrote for National Geographic magazine. The images of new orleans Fossey communing with the case, great apes captured the hearts of the world. Journalists and documentary filmmakers rushed to synthesis essay, Rwanda for their own look at Fossey and fresh interior designer letter her hairy friends. The attention attracted additional funding, and Karisoke began to resemble a true research center, with several new cabins constructed to house visitors. University students began vying for positions as research assistants at Karisoke, and research scientists angled for temporary positions working alongside the famous gorilla-watcher. Just three years in new orleans essay Africa, Fossey was at the top of her profession as a field researcher. Essay Of Man. Unfortunately, Dian Fossey never developed the same affection for most humans that she felt for gorillas. She had nothing good to say about — or to — any of her African employees.
In her journal, letters, reports and conversations, Fossey consistently lambasted the Africans for various shortcomings. She wrote in her journal, “My cookboy, Phocas… is so rude and new orleans essay insolent I hate having him here… The same holds true with the park guards. You can’t be nice to goal of motivation, them. New Orleans. If you give them a cigarette one day, they want the pack the next. So I go around giving orders and grumbling…” Another of Fossey’s peeves was the natives who grazed their domestic livestock amid the gorilla habitat in the park. Over time she became shockingly strident in her treatment of the case western university study, illegal grazers. Synthesis. More than once she took up a rifle and shot cows owned by a native whom she believed had violated park regulations against grazing. But she saved her most venomous vitriol for poachers.
They moved like shadows in small groups through the Parc des Volcans. Most were armed with spears and conversation machetes, not guns. Some hunted for meat to survive, targeting antelope, bushbuck, buffalo and the hyrax, a rabbit-like creature. But others specifically targeted gorillas to new orleans essay, sell their trophy hands and heads on theory of motivation, the international souvenir black market. After lobbying by Fossey, the Rwandan government agreed to station anti-poaching patrols at her Karisoke center. The patrols managed to push the poachers around a bit, and sometimes they would haul in essay a suspect. Fossey frequently exacted corporal punishment, beating the accused with a cane or the stalk of a nettles plant.
She often used an additional tactic: fake black magic. With fire, gunpowder and flares, she would pretend to cast a spell on the suspected offender, hoping that word would get around among poachers of her extraordinary powers. Indeed, she came to be regarded as a little crazy, perhaps deservedly. Fossey had a long-running battle with a notorious poacher named Munyarukiko. In the spring of 1972, she discovered that Munyarukiko had staged his own arrest by park guards, who collected a $120 reward, split it with the poacher, then released him.
Fossey marched to Munyarukiko’s camp, burned his belongings and kidnapped his four-year-old son, whom she held for a day before releasing him. In her journals, she referred to her incidents of livestock-shooting, vigilante assaults and kidnapping as “my latest no-no.” Fossey established a gorilla graveyard at Karisoke for of motivation essay apes killed by poachers. Despite her efforts and new orleans synthesis those of the government patrols, carcasses turned up from time to time, and the graveyard grew — each plot marked by a stubby pole topped with a board on which Fossey painted the name she had given the animal. Essay. On Jan. 1, 1978, an assistant found the corpse of Fossey’s beloved Digit, by then a young silverback, ten-years-old. His head, heart and hands and feet had been removed. Synthesis Essay. A dead dog found at the site — apparently killed by theory essay Digit before he was himself speared to death — was identified as belonging to Munyarukiko, the new orleans synthesis, infamous poacher. The seminal event prompted Fossey to cite a narrative, change the synthesis, focus of her work. She essentially abandoned academic research in favor of gorilla advocacy — what she came to call “active conservation.” She founded the restaurant mangement + research, Digit Fund to pay for her work. Fossey offered a cash bounty on Digit’s killers and threatened the new orleans synthesis, government with an fresh interior designer cover, anti-tourism poster featuring photos of the ape’s mutilated corpse above the slogan, “Come Visit Me in Rwanda.” She ordered her student researchers to begin carrying guns.
Not long after the new orleans essay, killing, her African employees captured a local tribesman who admitted that Munyarukiko’s clan was responsible — although Fossey acknowledged that she and her men had hogtied the man and designer cover letter “examined him very, very, very thoroughly.” The tribesman said Munyarukiko had been paid the equivalent of $20 for new orleans synthesis essay Digit’s body parts. Fossey held the man for several days before turning him over to how to a narrative essay, government authorities, and synthesis the Rwandan government complained to the U.S. embassy, which in turn griped to National Geographic Society, by then her primary funding source. She received a telegram from Melvin Payne, president of National Geographic: “WE ARE GREATLY DISTURBED BY OFFICIAL REPORT RECENT INCIDENT INVOLVING YOURSELF AND POACHERS STOP FULLY UNDERSTAND YOUR POSITION BUT URGE UTMOST RESTRAINT IN VIEW YOUR STATUS AS ALIEN RWANDA TOTALLY DEPENDENT UPON GOVERNMENT GOODWILL FOR CONTINUATION YOUR RESEARCH.” She later received an fresh letter, official letter from the Rwandan government, warning against essay, any publicity “that would discredit Rwanda and Rwandan parks.” Fossey agreed to a meeting at the American embassy in the capital city of Kigali, and she sat steaming as an old Belgian colonial governor, J.P. Goal Theory Of Motivation Essay. Harroy, castigated her for Digit’s death. Belgian advisors to synthesis essay, the Rwandan government believed gorilla tourism was one of the poor country’s few possibilities for income. “He had the nerve to say that Digit had been killed because of me,” Fossey wrote in her journal. “He said the poachers wanted revenge because I’ve stopped their activities… Harroy also had the audacity to goal theory of motivation, tell me that it was wrong for me to catch one of Digit’s killers!” Fossey dismissed Harroy’s ideas as those of a “senile old man.” But later events would make his words seem like a harbinger. New Orleans Synthesis Essay. Dian Fossey’s reaction to the Belgian official was typical: She was an inveterate name-killer and was not above throwing a tantrum — or a piece of furniture — if something did not go her way.
And things rarely went her way in personal relationships. Granted, living in mangement + research paper a cabin on an African mountaintop does not invite stable domesticity. But Fossey had a bad habit of embarking on affairs with married men. These included any number of visitors to synthesis, Karisoke, from tourists to cameramen to theory essay, students to visiting scholars. She had other similarly ill-fated relationships during her periodic sabbaticals to universities in England and new orleans synthesis the United States. Most ended the same way: with the essay, man leaving a devastated Fossey behind. She even had a brief fling with Louis Leakey, although that was the rare case in synthesis which Fossey dumped the love-bitten scientist, who gamely persisted with a series of sad love letters. But Fossey’s most trying relationship was a mix of goal theory of motivation personal and professional. In 1970, during a doctoral-studies stint at Cambridge in new orleans England, Fossey met an ambitious undergraduate student named Alexander (Sandy) Harcourt.
She invited him to western university study abroad, Karisoke as an intern, and her journal indicates that they developed an intimate relationship, although he was half her age. Harcourt returned to the Rwandan research center as a Ph.D. student in 1972. This time, instead of new orleans essay pairing up with Fossey, Harcourt fell for a young American student from Stanford, Kelly Stewart, daughter of the actor Jimmy Stewart. Fossey wrote admiringly about the bright, clever Stewart during her first weeks at university, Karisoke. But her journal notes took a turn after Harcourt and Stewart became lovers. Like a prudish aunt, she observed their movements as keenly as she had her gorillas. “Sandy’s cabin lights went off early, and hers much earlier, but then come on again, and her curtains firmly drawn. Whom do they think they’re kidding?” For more than a decade after those jealous words were written, Fossey and synthesis essay Harcourt fought over control of the Karisoke center. Telephone Essay. Kelly and Harcourt disparaged Fossey behind her back as boozy, lazy and moody, and Harcourt lobbied hard with funding sources to be named director of Karisoke.
Fossey had similar conflicts with Amy Vedder and Bill Weber, another young scientist couple who conducted research at the center. They later wrote a book claiming that Fossey got too much credit for her gorilla-study project. They went so far as to claim that Fossey rarely visited the gorillas because she was drunk much of the time. Bill Weber with gorilla. A blunt letter that Frank Crigler, the U.S. ambassador to Rwanda, wrote to Fossey in 1978, after the killings of Digit and two other gorillas, gives some credence to their allegations. In his letter Crigler refers to synthesis essay, “the Fossey problem.” “This town (Kigali) is goal theory essay, awash in unfriendly ‘Fossey stories’ right now, all about your heavy drinking, gun slinging, and synthesis manic-depression. How To A Narrative Essay. Some of it, at least, is reaching the Rwandan authorities,” Crigler wrote. “There’s a real danger that even well-meaning people could become convinced that Fossey is more of a liability than an asset to faunal preservation now. Essay. And those outraged letters to the Rwandan government from American conservationists, all of them citing your name, aren’t helping matters either.” Making the abroad, same point as the former Belgian governor, Crigler went on to write that some people were “becoming increasingly convinced that they (the gorilla killings) are the results of a vendetta aimed at you personally.
I take every opportunity to stress that… the government must crack down on the persons behind this vendetta. But there is new orleans essay, nonetheless a tendency for some to want to take the easier way out, i.e., to remove the target of the vendetta.” Instead, she devised a plan to take a leave on restaurant mangement paper, her own terms, and in March 1980 she finally left Karisoke for new orleans synthesis an appointment as a visiting professor at Cornell University in upstate New York. She used her time there to polish her memoirs and to how to a narrative, regain her health, decimated by sciatica, chronic respiratory distress and back pain. Fossey spent most of the next three years in the United States. The success of synthesis her book, Gorillas in the Mist, published in the summer of how to cite essay 1983, filled her bank account at the right time. Synthesis. Foundation funding for telephone essay Karisoke had dried up, as threatened, and essay Fossey began paying the bills herself when she returned to Rwanda in November 1983.
In the western university study, fall of 1985, a series of odd incidents presaged Fossey’s murder. First, her pet parrots fell victim to apparent poisoning. A few days later, Fossey found the carved likeness of synthesis essay a puff adder — a venomous African snake — on the doorstep of essay of man her cabin. According to the region’s black magic, this meant she had been marked with the curse of death. Fossey noted in an Oct. 27 journal entry that she had received the apparent threat, but she paid little heed. Exactly two months later, early in the morning on Dec. 27, 1985, someone broke into her cabin while she slept by new orleans synthesis essay knocking a hole in a wall.
Fossey apparently was awakened by the intruders, and she scrambled for a handgun stored in a bureau drawer. She got the gun and its ammunition clip in hand, but she was slain by two blows from a bush machete that cleaved open her head before she could use the weapon. At sunrise, an African aide delivering coffee found her body splayed across the sofa. The floor glittered with broken glass from lamp globes shattered during the struggle. The mattress on how to essay, her bed was askew, and a small table at the center of the synthesis, cabin was overturned. The crime scene indicated that Dian Fossey died fighting. Fossey was buried in her gorilla graveyard on the final day of 1985. Her initial gravemarker was identical to study abroad, those of the gorillas who lay buried around her: a simple wooden placard painted with the new orleans synthesis essay, name “Dian.” Later, someone added a more permanent marker. Is this the perfect essay for essay you? Save time and order Dian Fossey – Life and Death.
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